Russia-Ukraine Flash Report for 4-11-22 9:30 PDT (Patreon)

In our assessment, the reports on Sunday that the Ukrainian military forces in Mariupol have been bisected were overstated.

In the last 24 hours, there was fighting in the city's center, significantly east of where fighting was concentrated in the previous three days. There continues to be armor vs. armor fighting, and Ukrainian forces can direct artillery using drones.

The Chechen TikTok video crew appears to have moved to the Donbas.

This weekend, several videos and pictures indicated that Russian forces had made gains, including a very nervous person from Russian State Media reporting within the southern part of the port. NASA FIRMS has shown heavy fighting in the same area over the previous 12 hours.

There has been a continued pattern of Russian forces moving into an area that is contested, having state media make a news report during a lull in fighting to fall back. Outside of Mariupol, there are previous examples in Ruhbizne, Papasana, Izyum, Brovary, and Irpin.

In our assessment, Russian forces will secure Mariupol at some point, but due to a lack of intelligence, misinformation, and the strong resistance by Ukrainian troops, we can't estimate when. We believe there remains a force of 3,000 to 3,500 Ukrainian defending the city, along with 500 to 750 members of the Azov Batallion. There is a high probability of added support from an aggressive civilian insurgency. We further believe that when the city falls, it will happen quickly, with defenders likely running out of resources and being forced to surrender.

For 41 days, Ukraine has fought against the equivalent of 12 Russian Batallion Tactical Groups, naval barrages, and air force bombings. Civilians are paying the price, with the dead now estimated to be tens of thousands.