Russia-Ukraine Flash Report: 4-7-22 12:15 PDT (Patreon)

United Nations Human Rights Council

The United Nations voted to remove Russia from the Human Rights Council, 93 to 24. Shortly after the vote, Russia quit the council.

United States to Suspend Normal Trade Relations with the Russian Federation

The United States Senate unanimously voted to suspend normal trade relations with Russia. The measure already passed the House, so it will move to President Joe Biden's desk.

United States to Ban Russian Energy Imports

The United States Senate unanimously voted to ban energy imports from Russia (coal, oil, natural gas). The measure already passed the House, so it too will move to President Joe Biden's desk.

United States Reviving World War II Lend-Lease Program

The United States Senate unanimously voice voted to reinstate the World War II "Lend-Lease" program. The reinstatement would cut through bureaucratic red tape to provide weapons to Ukraine, is provided under a "promise to pay later" basis, and provides the President with additional powers. It is unclear if the House will vote on the measure before it goes on a two-week recess today.

ASSESSMENT: This is a remarkable demonstration of solidarity by the very divided Senate chamber to revive the 82-year-old law. Lend-lease will give President Joe Biden significant decision-making ability. In United States politics, voice votes are typically reserved for procedural issues, controversial measures where politicians don't want their vote on the official record, and highly supported decisions the body wants to fast track. Voice votes are done by an "aye" and "nay" vote, with the Senate President (not to be confused with the Vice President or the President of the United States) making a determination on which group had broader support.

Two More Nations Expel Russian Diplomats

Ireland has expelled four Russian diplomats and Northern Macedonia announced they were ejecting five.

Russia No Longer Answering the Deconfliction Line

Russian counterparts are no longer answering the daily test calls made on the deconfliction line between Washington and Moscow. 

Reports Finland will Formally Request to Join NATO

Finnish news reports indicate that Finland will formally request to join NATO. 

NATO Discussing if and How to Provide Ukraine with "Heavy Weapons"

NATO is considering additional military support to Ukraine and providing heavy weapons to the nation. Heavy weapons could be tanks, offensive cruise or ballistic missile systems, combat aircraft and helicopters, motorized MLRS, and self-propelled heavy artillery.

ASSESSMENT: Providing Western nation equipment would require training to use these systems. We have no insight on how that could be done quickly without putting NATO forces on the ground. During World War II, United States military personnel were permitted to resign so they could volunteer in China and the United Kingdom. 

Moldova Makes the Display of the Z Symbol and St. George's Ribbon Illegal

The Moldovan Parliament voted to make displaying pro-Russian iconographies such as the Z symbol and the orange and black St. George's ribbon illegal in the nation that borders Ukraine.

Ukraine Declares Transnistria a No-Fly Zone

Ukraine has warned they will shoot down any aircraft flying into or out of Transnistria. There are unconfirmed reports that 1500 to 2000 Russian troops in the breakaway republic are staging at an airfield (or multiple airfields).

ASSESSMENT: Moldova and Transnistria have insisted that the Russian peacekeeping force in Transnistria has not mobilized and has no intent on invading Ukraine. Historically, the Russian units in Transnistria are genuinely a peacekeeping force and not heavily armed BTGs. They have been stationed in the ribbon of land between Moldova and Ukraine for geopolitical reasons - the presence keeps Moldova from applying for NATO membership because the nation is "occupied."

Moldova has almost no military and is constitutionally bound to disallow occupation forces in its nation. National leaders are not aligned with Russia and would draw no political, economic, or military benefit from trying to cover up a planned military action in the neighboring republic. It is worth noting no nation, including Russia, recognizes Transnistrian independence. Moldova and Transnistria and Transnistria and Ukraine have not been hostile to each other.

We believe it is far more likely given the state of the Russian military, that Russia intends to draw down the troops in Transnistria for forward deployment in Eastern Ukraine, and replace them with conscripts, PMC, or foreign volunteers. Because Transnistria needs to remain occupied to prevent NATO membership, we do not believe Russia would remove its peacekeeping force in the republic.

Additionally, any Russian attempt to fly aircraft through those regions of Ukraine would require travel through airspace where Ukraine holds air dominance to air superiority.