Russia-Ukraine Flash Report - 4/6/22 9:00 PDT (Patreon)

A number of events are happening today.

Russia Adjusting Tactics to Meet the Battlefield

ASSESSMENT: The biggest news is coming out of Izyum, where there is more evidence that Russia is (finally) adapting its tactics after weeks of crippling losses.

For the last six weeks, reconnaissance units were sent forward and frequently attacked in ambushes. Russian forces appeared untrained, improperly used armor, and often seemed to blunder into fire. 

We're now seeing more organized reconnaissance in force, better spacing in convoys, and some improvement in ground troop tactics, specifically in the Izyum area.

Additionally, Russian military units are moving off-road more often, using traces in the forests to advance in areas. This increases the chances of an ambush; however, it provides better protection from artillery and javelin missile attacks (to a degree).

Finally, forces advancing south from Izyum have significant close air support. This is the first time we've seen this in what appears to be a better-organized offensive.

Even to a Call of Duty keyboard warrior, this would seem like military offensive 101, but we haven't seen this for over a month, leaving many wondering why.

Despite these improvements, specifically in Izyum, the same cannot be said for Severodonetsk. We continue to see the prior strategy of limited air support, weapons fire concentrated on civilians, and units thrown to the front lines piecemeal. This region is displaying the original Russian military doctrine applied at the start of the invasion.

Seige of Kharkiv?

The Ukrainian General Staff has warned that Russia may try to encircle Kharkiv. We're looking into the situation to make our evaluation. Kharkiv is Ukraine's second-largest city and has a significant Russian population. Almost 80% of the buildings in Kkarhiv are damaged. Public sympathy for the Russian "liberation" that was an undercurrent in the city has turned to shock and rage. A siege of Kharkiv would be a catastrophe for over 1.5 million Ukrainians - but given the state of the Russian military an unwinnable goal.

ASSESSMENT: We see this as unlikely, but the Ukrainian General Staff is recommending residents in the city stock up with two weeks of supplies, including water.

Mariupol

It is day 36 of the siege, which is stunning given the situation. There are reports from the City Council that Russia has brought mobile crematoriums into the city to hide atrocities. The Russian military has mobile crematoriums, and Russia allegedly used them in the Donbas for a two-month period in 2015. 

ASSESSMENT: The mobile crematoriums Russia bought from 2013 to 2015 can only process eight to ten bodies a day, assuming continuous operation, which requires a tremendous amount of fuel. Given the hundreds, if not thousands, of bodies in the city, this is a large-scale effort that seems unlikely. You would need ten units to process 80 to 100 bodies a day and the fuel supply. Additionally, all of the pictures that continue to circulate are from promotional materials from the manufacturer. There hasn't been a confirmed siting of the equipment anywhere in Ukraine. 

Three disinformation campaigns are going on after the sinking of the Azburg. One is that the port is undamaged and never attacked, with a video circulating stating this is "right now" in the harbor. The short video clip appears to be from a webcam, but the source does not provide attribution or a link. We're hoping for a Maxar public image of the port to show which ships are at berths, which would prove or debunk the video. (we looked into it, Maxar and Planet satellite requests are costly - no, don't even think about it, that money would be better spent on other things).

Disinformation point two - the Azov Batallion has 4,000 fighters stationed in the port, making their last stand there. That is a common number if you haven't caught on to the theme of the endless "4,000 Azov Batallion Nazis left" since mid-March. Russia State Media declared on March 19 that there were only a few hundred left, and they were in the Azovstal Metallurgical Factory.

OPINION: The Azov Batallion is immortal, possibly Highlanders. The Russians and Chechens need swords. There is a Russian State Media video of two soldiers doing some swordplay that was released today. Maybe this isn't an opinion???

Disinformation point three - there is a biolab at the port, that's why the cargo ship was attacked, and the Azovs backed by the United States is getting ready to deploy the bioweapon in the city. The vessel was attempting to get American special forces and Azov Nazi leaders out of the city.

ASSESSMENT: This is a common tactic when a disinformation campaign can't get ahead of the truth, throw several different narratives out, see which one gets social media traction, and amplify that story. In the case of the Azburg sinking, there are photos, NASA FIRMS data that shows a fire at a berth on April 3 - 4 (on our Twitter and in yesterday's SITREP), and an interview with the wounded chief engineer of the ship itself. Additional witness testimony from other ship commanders helped rescue the crew. There is the official statement from Domnica condemning the attack, calling for the end of hostilities in Ukraine, and demanding Russia facilitate the evacuation of the ship's crew.

Bucha War Crimes

320.

The Kyiv suburb of Bucha had 36,000 residents before the Invasion.

320.

That's how many children have been found dead. 320.

Almost 1% of the entire population.

Borodyanka Liberation

If you watched the videos and looked at the pictures we had in the SITREP yesterday for Borodyanka, you might notice something missing.

People. Where did 13,000 people go?

Yes, there are some civilians in the town, but in most areas, even where Ukrainian troops are visible and in control, you're not seeing people.

There are reports that some residents were taken into the woods outside of the city. The area is heavily mined, and current rescue efforts are focusing on the town itself. Progress within the city is slow because the entire area has been obliterated, much like Okhtyrka in eastern Ukraine. Chechen forces primarily controlled Borodyanka, and the initial survivor stories report rape and brutality. There is evidence of executions within the city, and attacks on civilians on the roads leading in and out of Borodyanka.

ASSESSMENT: Hope for the best, expect the worst. There are many more missing people in Borodyanka beyond the official number of 200.

About that Ukrainian Army "Arrest" Video

Many of you have been sending us a video circulating on social media showing a group of Ukrainian soldiers arresting a group of civilians and using excessive force. Several different narratives are being used on what is happening in the video.

FACT: We covered the Black Lives Matter protests extensively in 2020 in Seattle and Portland. Our fair and balanced coverage (yes, we leaned left, we freely admit it) gave us national exposure. We showed everything, the good, the bad, and the ugly. I was pepper-sprayed, had a flash-bang grenade thrown directly at me (on camera) that exploded about 10 feet behind me at head level, and I was hit with 37MM less lethal "rubber bullets" (there is nothing fun about it - this isn't paintball or airsoft). I was struck with a baton on camera in October, resulting in bruises on my back despite wearing Class IV body armor clearly marked with "press" on the front and back.

The response to this video clip gets a long preamble because this is a very politically charged issue. An unedited, live-streamed video never lies if it shows the before, during, and after.

With all of those keystrokes, I witnessed firsthand, as have others on our team, the same level of force used by the Seattle Police Department, the Portland Police Bureau, the Tacoma Police Department, and the United States Marshalls.

ASSESSMENT: I am not justifying the actions of the Ukrainian troops in that video, but we have no context on the "before," which immediately becomes problematic. We have seen a significant uptick in "whataboutism" and disinformation after the discoveries in Bucha.

This includes a video circulating yesterday of a wounded Russian POW being executed - that video was from Georgia in 2008. There is another video, of extremely low quality allegedly showing two Russian soldiers who were "executed." The bodies are in significantly different states of decay, only the ankles are loosely bound, and one was still armed with at least one grenade available and unbound hands. There are many red flags in the video.

As a gentle reminder, we maintain that the video of three Russian POWs being shot is authentic, and believe that the additional research work done by the BBC on the topic, provided more information that strengthens our position. We also never challenged if 250 or more Ukrainian marines surrendered to what appeared to be Chechen control. We only questioned if the event happened in Mariupol. When a second source became available, we authenticated the claim.

We are looking at content through the same filters and we do find value in Russian State Media videos, or we wouldn't reference them in the SITREP. Thanks to terrible OPSEC, Russian State Media has been a tremendous source of information on the situation in Mariupol.

The challenge we have with Russian State Media content is the liberal application of half-truths to the narrative. This does not include the work of Patrick Lancaster, which is not journalism, or the comical videos the Chechens produce - which are little more than entertainment.

It is extremely difficult to take a news organization seriously when they claim to capture settlements, towns, and regions repeatedly, to reverse their own narrative one or two days later - it is in a word - Orwellian. Another fundamental problem is many Russian claims are single source, single video, and emerge from Russian state media sponsored social media accounts. All of those are red flags when evaluating the authenticity of a claim.

The video of the detainments as proof of atrocities feels to us like desperately grasping at strawman arguments. There are countless examples of this amount of force used to arrest American suspects (regardless of race) that, after investigation, are found to be "within our department's use of force policy." Further, there are countless videos before the start of the war of Russian riot police being equally brutal to protesters in their own country.