Russia-Ukraine Flash Report - 3/30/22 11:30 PDT (Patreon)

It has been extremely hard to get validated information out of Ukraine today. There is very little data coming through the channels we monitor and the most disinformation we've seen to date. 

We are able to glean a few things this morning.

Chernihiv went through some of the worst artillery strikes overnight since the start of the war. This happened less than 24 hours after the Russian Ministry of Defense announced their planned withdrawal from the area and a significant reduction in operations in the area.

The night before the city was almost silent, sporadic water service was restored along with electricity. Based on the somewhat improved conditions and the statement from the Russian MOD, some citizens decided not to sleep in bomb shelters and basements, believing that things had taken a turn.

There is little evidence northwest, west, and east of Kyiv of any Russian withdrawal. A lot of consolidation and troop movements, but no withdrawals.

Russian forces are using the Chernobyl compound as a staging base, and a number of the token withdrawals done, are staging in the area. The Ukrainian General Staff is accusing Russia of storing large quantities of ammunition there, in part because an attack on the plant would be impossible and unsafe. The concern is an accident could turn into a disaster.

It is important to note, that the risk at Chernobyl is very real, but reports of a calamity that would equal the 1986 disaster or the 2011 Fukushima meltdown, overstate the risk

The largest risk is the long-term health implications of the Russian troops operating and staging in the area for an extended period of time without NBC protection. 

Unsecured Russian communications via HF and cell phones are openly discussing war crimes being committed by the forces that are maneuvering out of areas. We can validate the communications, but we can't validate the claims.

They include the execution of civilians including women and children, rape, and intentionally mining and booby-trapping towns and villages. One commander was complaining that Russian units would mine a town, to have another Russian unit pass through, go to loot houses, and get wounded/killed by their own ordinance.

On Russian social media, social influencers are justifying rape saying that Ukrainian women are throwing themselves at the soldiers, they are whores anyway, and the age of consent in Ukraine is 16 so that makes it acceptable. It is shocking to see that these views are being expressed openly by young influencers in the social media sphere.

Chechen forces in eastern Mariupol released another group of videos showing them doing - nothing. Shooting widely at nothing, displaying incredibly poor tactics, and moving through areas to demonstrate their combat capabilities, that were secured days, sometimes weeks ago.

They've secured an estimated three New York City blocks in 15 days. They have engaged in fighting, but have not had the same level of success as their Russian counterparts.