Russia-Ukraine Flash Report - 3/16/22 13:00 PDT (Patreon)

Late last night, about the same time we were seeing reports of the death of Russian Major General Oleg Mityaev of the 150 motor infantry division (captions on last night's TikTok heard me say 115th - oh well), the death of GRU Captain Alexey Glushchak, who was on assignment in Mariupol, we started seeing chatter about a drama theater being bombed.

The chatter didn't specify a city at first, and in the interest of transparency, we wasted a good hour trying to confirm this, believing it had happened in Kharkiv - based on chatter.

https://72.ru/text/incidents/2022/03/13/70504958/

https://www.newsweek.com/who-oleg-mityaev-fourth-russian-general-allegedly-killed-ukraine-1688436

Of all the deaths of high-ranking officers in Russia, these two are 100% confirmed.

In the case of Captain Glushchak, he died in action on March 8 in Mariupol and was buried with military honors on March 13. His funeral was covered by Russian State Media which also shared the date of his death, his location, and that he was involved in the intelligence operation in Mariupol.

In the case of General Mityaev, his death is the most verifiable of the four Russian generals (and one Chechen) that have been killed in action to date.

Content Warning (NSFW - Graphic Content): 

https://twitter.com/worldonalert/status/1503854809237139462

Hours after his death was announced, we learned that the Drama Theater was in Mariupol. The City Council made a statement earlier today and according to photos by the Associated Press, and the graphic report about overall conditions in Mariupol in the Washington Post yesterday (linked in our SITREP for 3/15) we consider the report authentic.

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/russia-strike-theater-mariupol-residents-ukraine-foreign-minister-says/

Russia is blaming the Azov Battalion as usual, but that claim raises questions in itself. The battalion is apparently both impotent and wields unlimited power according to Russian State Media, both upon the people within Mariupol, and the Russian troops involved in the "special military operations."

Despite a lack of food, heat, electricity, drinking water, the ability to bury bodies (SITREP 3/15), uncontrolled fires on the western and eastern edge of the city, and aircraft bombings (the Azov Batallion doesn't have aircraft), the Russians are preventing people who want to leave the city - from leaving.

OPINION: This isn't liberation, it is annihilation.

A convoy of 160 cars got out on Monday, and 2000 on Tuesday, but the route was described as harrowing with artillery and sniper fire for those evacuating yesterday. The city is cut off from the sea to the south and has been heavily mined on the outer perimeter. 

If you haven't read the Washington Post story filed by the two Associated Press reporters still in the city, you should. They bring receipts - a lot of them.

OPINION: There is something more to this story.

A GRU Captain is killed doing operations in Mariupol. His death is publicized by state media, including his theater of operations.

Six days after his death, Major General Mityaev is killed. He was a veteran of Chechenya and Syria, and of all the cities in Ukraine facing atrocities reminiscent of Allepo, it has been Mariupol. Mityaev was a vicious and vindictive commander given his previous track record. The behavior of a unit trickles down from the top.

Hours after his death, the theater, a known bomb shelter filled with hundreds is destroyed. The entrance to the bomb shelter itself was specifically targeted according to the Mariupol City Council - which has been transparent. Russia did this in Chechenya, Georgia, and Syria.

My personal view - the theater attack was calculated as revenge for the death of General Mityaev. The accusation that this was done by the Azov Batallion is utterly ludicrous given that Russian forces now control the bombed-out remains of the eastern and western edge of the city. Defenders have no hope for resupply or relief and are under constant attack. When would they have the time, combat capability, or resources to bomb the city they are defending? Why haven't 400,000 residents turned against city defenders and started surrendering en masse? If the Azov Batallion is truly terrorizing the population, how are they blocking Russian troops from stopping the slaughter, and why isn't the Russian military putting more resources on the ground, like that whole amphibious assault group they could land in eight hours from the south and overrun the city. Why are Russian forces preventing people from leaving the city, while they go full Weimar and Panzer SS division on the city itself?

So if I look at the chessboard - my theory.

Captain Alexey Glushchak either screwed up or got compromised. We know he wasn't captured and killed (or worse) based on the reports from Russia State Media, which is motivated to paint the best possible picture as it is. They got his body back and were able to bury him.

Did Glushchak impact operational security, enabling information on movements, radio frequencies, or coded transmissions to get into the hands of Ukrainian defenders, which ended up with Major General Mityaev killed less than a week later?

My opinion (and belief) is the theater was intentionally targeted. If GRU is operating in Mariupol then they know things. I'm much more inclined to believe the worst, given Mityaev's previous track record as a commander, and the verified information that came out of Mariupol yesterday.

In the end, the Ukrainian people suffer, young Russian men are used as cannon fodder, and a generation is drenched in blood and hate.