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F1 荷蘭站:角田裕毅直線助攻

說來慚愧,直播時本欄曾笑稱「感應」到討論區將有陰謀論出現。可惜,後來事實如是。外號「女諸葛」的 紅牛主策略工程師(Principal Strategy Engineer)Hannah Schmitz  慘成網民箭靶,事情嚴重得令 AlphaTauri 翌日必須發出聲明反駁。

角田裕毅壞車奇怪嗎❓

電視上看來,確實奇怪。所以,平治領隊 Toto Wolff 賽後怒稱:如果在爭總冠軍,我們會要求獨立調查。不過如果從 onboard 無線電聽來,這似乎只是當時的角田與「金牛」均不懂所謂何事。

首先,角田 radio 說似乎未裝好輪胎,車隊通知說停車、熄車與棄車。後來,車隊數據顯示輪胎實安裝穩妥,車隊再通知說別棄車,並駛回維修站換胎。回站後,金牛手足協助角田拉緊安全帶(因早前準備棄車)。出站後,角田 radio 再說車尾有問題,感到疑似 differential 有事(賽後檢查證實真有其事)。車隊最後通知停在路旁,角田停在較窄路段,大會出動 VSC。

無 VSC 的話平治會贏嗎❓

第 47 圈黃旗及第 48 圈 VSC 前,第 1 位的 Max 領先第 2 的 Lewis 接近 14 秒、領先第 3 的 George 超過 16 秒。Max 原定 2 停,平治雙雄原定 1 停。Pirelli 預測 2 停「紅黃黃」為最快策略之一,預測第 2 停就在第 43 至 49 圈。大會顯示,荷蘭站正常換胎的話,pitloss 是 18 秒。

Toto 賽後說根據他們的估算,Max 兩停後將落後 8 秒,至倒數 6 圈才追緊:平治可以贏。不過紅牛領隊 Christian Horner 則反駁說,根據他們的數學模型,Max 將在倒數 15 圈已追至兩架平治後面,似乎暗示:無論如何 Max 都能贏。

沒有安全車的話平治會贏嗎❓

第 56 圈 SC 時,Max 按照 Hannah 的大膽決定、放棄第一位、放棄 track position 進站換紅色胎跌落第 3。第 57 圈尾 SC 帶領車群駛入 pitlane,平治決定再搏一次:Lewis 黃胎領先不變,換上紅胎的 George 則跌落第 3 攻擊 Max。事實上,Lewis restart 時太早起步贈 Max 氣流、自己用錯 engine mode,加上對手用紅胎及有 tow,都造就Max 瞬間奪回頭位。

Toto 賽後證實,是車隊要求 George 進站。同時,他說明「兩車不換胎與兩車換胎都是2-3」,所以一車換紅胎搏冠軍。事實上,George 於 SC 後最後 10 圈每圈慢 Max 0.1 至 1.8 秒,只有 1 圈快 0.01 秒。最後 10 圈內,George 共輸 4 秒給 Max。

要搶第 1 合理,兩車 double stack 難因為只差兩秒,兩車分拆戰略亦合理,那麼換上紅胎的可以是 Lewis 嗎❓帶頭的平治看來不似帶頭的紅牛般,願意放棄 track position ❓你認為無 VSC/SC 的話,平治會贏嗎❓

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Anonymous

我估冇VSC/SC嘅話Max都會最後反勝,好似上年法國站咁,今年RB18實在超班,要追Mercedes應該唔難

Anonymous (edited)

Comment edits

2023-03-05 22:43:52 I think... 1. Merc underestimated the race pace of Max's RB on red tyre. After all, RB didn't show their real race pace in all 3 FP sessions. RB had only pulled a few fast Q laps, yet also seemed a time that Merc could possibly match. 2. Merc seemed more (and over) confident in harder components and in their race pace (seen that throughout the season). Ham was supreme in the mid stage with white tyre, keeping a below 18s gap in order to shut Max's pit window. This was a pure quality of Ham and Merc's race pace with white. Actually, the VSC period (due to Tsunoda's car issue) didn't cause much real drama, but messed up a bit of Merc's 1-stop plan. Still Merc was in a good fight for 1-2 or 1-3 in my memory. However, I still think that it would still end up a Merc 2-3, while Max could still win. Zandvoort's main straight is difficult to defend, and the slipstream starts in the Holland bank. Merc didn't have enough speed (and so was Ferrari, I *felt* that... really want to see again the comparison of Max and Charles Q head-to-head video), and RB was just too quick and could pass easily even before the braking zone. The chaotic SC (due to Bottas' car parking in the main straight) might have brought the real drama (to the viewers), but it just made it easier for RB. Wasn't that sounded familiar? This year Silverstone, when Ocon parked his car at the end of the old straight, Leclerc didn't pit, but all behind did. Eventually Leclerc was passed by the 3 podium drivers << maybe not quite the same, anyway, I just don't understand why not put red on Ham's car. I felt that the yellow tire didn't hold well in the Merc after SC restart, and possibly due to Merc/Ham's unusual mistake (possibly due to losing concentration corresponding to the chaos of tire change decision, as heard in Ham's radio of complaining that there was no way he could hold off Max in the SC restart), Ham gave Max an easy pass. In any case, Max's RB on that last set of red tyre was way too fast for anyone to catch, while Ham's car with the old yellow tyre also easily lost to Russell before the braking zone. So based on my view, I think that even there was not VSC/SC, Max could easily catch up and pass after pitting the 2nd time with newer yellow or red tyre (remember, at that time, those 2 Merc with very old white tyre could be even more difficult to defend the position). So what if Merc/Ham decided to give up track position and pit for red, leaving Russell out there? It would be the same, just Ham and Russell swapped their result; Both pitted for red, Merc might get 2-3 (Ham-Russell); both not pit, Merc could get 3-4 (or even worse). The only solution for Ham to win was to send Russell to crash Max out (hmmm... only Bottas would take that instruction, hahaha).
2022-09-06 10:58:51 I think... 1. Merc underestimated the race pace of Max's RB on red tyre. After all, RB didn't show their real race pace in all 3 FP sessions. RB had only pulled a few fast Q laps, yet also seemed a time that Merc could possibly match. 2. Merc seemed more (and over) confident in harder components and in their race pace (seen that throughout the season). Ham was supreme in the mid stage with white tyre, keeping a below 18s gap in order to shut Max's pit window. This was a pure quality of Ham and Merc's race pace with white. Actually, the VSC period (due to Tsunoda's car issue) didn't cause much real drama, but messed up a bit of Merc's 1-stop plan. Still Merc was in a good fight for 1-2 or 1-3 in my memory. However, I still think that it would still end up a Merc 2-3, while Max could still win. Zandvoort's main straight is difficult to defend, and the slipstream starts in the Holland bank. Merc didn't have enough speed (and so was Ferrari, I *felt* that... really want to see again the comparison of Max and Charles Q head-to-head video), and RB was just too quick and could pass easily even before the braking zone. The chaotic SC (due to Bottas' car parking in the main straight) might have brought the real drama (to the viewers), but it just made it easier for RB. Wasn't that sounded familiar? This year Silverstone, when Ocon parked his car at the end of the old straight, Leclerc didn't pit, but all behind did. Eventually Leclerc was passed by the 3 podium drivers << maybe not quite the same, anyway, I just don't understand why not put red on Ham's car. I felt that the yellow tire didn't hold well in the Merc after SC restart, and possibly due to Merc/Ham's unusual mistake (possibly due to losing concentration corresponding to the chaos of tire change decision, as heard in Ham's radio of complaining that there was no way he could hold off Max in the SC restart), Ham gave Max an easy pass. In any case, Max's RB on that last set of red tyre was way too fast for anyone to catch, while Ham's car with the old yellow tyre also easily lost to Russell before the braking zone. So based on my view, I think that even there was not VSC/SC, Max could easily catch up and pass after pitting the 2nd time with newer yellow or red tyre (remember, at that time, those 2 Merc with very old white tyre could be even more difficult to defend the position). So what if Merc/Ham decided to give up track position and pit for red, leaving Russell out there? It would be the same, just Ham and Russell swapped their result; Both pitted for red, Merc might get 2-3 (Ham-Russell); both not pit, Merc could get 3-4 (or even worse). The only solution for Ham to win was to send Russell to crash Max out (hmmm... only Bottas would take that instruction, hahaha).

I think... 1. Merc underestimated the race pace of Max's RB on red tyre. After all, RB didn't show their real race pace in all 3 FP sessions. RB had only pulled a few fast Q laps, yet also seemed a time that Merc could possibly match. 2. Merc seemed more (and over) confident in harder components and in their race pace (seen that throughout the season). Ham was supreme in the mid stage with white tyre, keeping a below 18s gap in order to shut Max's pit window. This was a pure quality of Ham and Merc's race pace with white. Actually, the VSC period (due to Tsunoda's car issue) didn't cause much real drama, but messed up a bit of Merc's 1-stop plan. Still Merc was in a good fight for 1-2 or 1-3 in my memory. However, I still think that it would still end up a Merc 2-3, while Max could still win. Zandvoort's main straight is difficult to defend, and the slipstream starts in the Holland bank. Merc didn't have enough speed (and so was Ferrari, I *felt* that... really want to see again the comparison of Max and Charles Q head-to-head video), and RB was just too quick and could pass easily even before the braking zone. The chaotic SC (due to Bottas' car parking in the main straight) might have brought the real drama (to the viewers), but it just made it easier for RB. Wasn't that sounded familiar? This year Silverstone, when Ocon parked his car at the end of the old straight, Leclerc didn't pit, but all behind did. Eventually Leclerc was passed by the 3 podium drivers << maybe not quite the same, anyway, I just don't understand why not put red on Ham's car. I felt that the yellow tire didn't hold well in the Merc after SC restart, and possibly due to Merc/Ham's unusual mistake (possibly due to losing concentration corresponding to the chaos of tire change decision, as heard in Ham's radio of complaining that there was no way he could hold off Max in the SC restart), Ham gave Max an easy pass. In any case, Max's RB on that last set of red tyre was way too fast for anyone to catch, while Ham's car with the old yellow tyre also easily lost to Russell before the braking zone. So based on my view, I think that even there was not VSC/SC, Max could easily catch up and pass after pitting the 2nd time with newer yellow or red tyre (remember, at that time, those 2 Merc with very old white tyre could be even more difficult to defend the position). So what if Merc/Ham decided to give up track position and pit for red, leaving Russell out there? It would be the same, just Ham and Russell swapped their result; Both pitted for red, Merc might get 2-3 (Ham-Russell); both not pit, Merc could get 3-4 (or even worse). The only solution for Ham to win was to send Russell to crash Max out (hmmm... only Bottas would take that instruction, hahaha).

Anonymous

Actually double stack tyre change could go pretty wrong... remember? when Rus was driving Ham's car ;) When under SC while both Merc cars were so close, no way that they would go for double stack tyre change.

Anonymous

Again, Hannah/Max win again, and it was so unusual leading car giving up track pos in SC and pit first, not knowing the car behind would pit or not.

Anonymous

ToTo季後表示:今年無紅牛同法拉利參賽佢攞多一屆世界冠軍添呀😂