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New NJB: Induced Demand (Patreon)

Published:
2024-02-03 14:00:08
Imported:
2024-02
Tags:

Content

I have had it on my list since day 1 to do a video about Induced Demand. But then I saw so many other videos come out about this topic, and I figured that this topic had been done, and there was no point in making another video.

... but then I was doing some research for other videos, and I came across SO many road widening and highway projects that promise to "reduce congestion", and it pissed me off. So I decided to work with Nicole (my contract writer) to make a video about it. Because even if it's been said before, it's clear that it hasn't been said enough!

YouTube: https://youtu.be/CHZwOAIect4
Nebula: https://nebula.tv/videos/notjustbikes-more-lanes-are-still-a-bad-thing

This was the first video where I recorded the voiceover in my new studio. It's so good to have a dedicated space for making NJB content. Thanks so much for your support, this wouldn't be possible without you!

Enjoy!

Jason

Files

NJB Induced Demand YT FINAL v2mp4

Get 60% off Incogni: https://incogni.com/notjustbikes Script by Nicole Conlan & Jason Slaughter Thanks to Matthew Krol (Extra Credits), Chuck Mahrohn (Strong Towns), & Lane Man (Cities by Diana) for quotes --- References & Reading EMPIRICAL EVIDENCE ON INDUCED TRAFFIC https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/BF00166218 What Is Induced Demand? https://www.planetizen.com/definition/induced-demand Building Bigger Roads Actually Makes Traffic Worse https://www.wired.com/2014/06/wuwt-traffic-induced-demand/ INDUCED TRAFFIC AND INDUCED DEMAND https://nacto.org/docs/usdg/induced_traffic_and_induced_demand_lee.pdf Highway 401 Expansion https://www.infrastructureontario.ca/en/what-we-do/projectssearch/highway-401-expansion-project/ Induced Demand: An Urban Metropolitan Perspective https://escholarship.org/content/qt5pj337gw/qt5pj337gw.pdf Supply/Demand graph based on SilverStar (CC BY 2.5) https://commons.wikimedia.org/w/index.php?curid=11044484 405 Commutes Now a Minute Worse Than Before Carpool Lane https://la.curbed.com/2014/10/9/10036932/405-commutes-now-a-minute-worse-than-before-carpool-lane Houston commute times quickly increasing https://www.click2houston.com/news/2014/02/04/houston-commute-times-quickly-increasing/ North Houston Highway Improvement Project (NHHIP) https://www.txdot.gov/nhhip.html With I-45 construction set to begin in 2024, many facets of the project remain uncertain https://www.houstonchronicle.com/news/houston-texas/transportation/article/i45-meetings-txdot-freeway-rebuild-18507217.php Rethink35 Austin & Frogger https://rethink35.org/ https://onelinergames.com/games/i35frogger/webversion/ Lawsuit against TxDOT https://www.zeffy.com/en-US/fundraising/41a2391b-9075-4700-b504-5c4ce1937e3f Mr. Biden, Tear Down This Highway https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2022/09/08/opinion/urban-highways-segregation.html Braess's paradox - Wikipedia https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Braess%27s_paradox The Spring Paradox Steve Mould https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Cg73j3QYRJc Congestion Decreases When Cities ‘Delete’ Road Lanes https://cal.streetsblog.org/2022/05/13/three-reasons-why-congestion-decreases-when-cities-delete-road-lanes Exploring traffic evaporation https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2213624X22002085 Traffic Evaporation: What Really Happens When Road Space is Reallocated from Cars? https://thecityfix.com/blog/traffic-evaporation-what-really-happens-when-road-space-is-reallocated-from-cars/ From Freeways to Waterways: What Los Angeles Can Learn From Seoul https://www.pbssocal.org/shows/departures/from-freeways-to-waterways-what-los-angeles-can-learn-from-seoul 청계고가, 밤 12시부터 전면 통제, 고가도로 철거 오는 10월 말까지 마무리 https://news.sbs.co.kr/news/endPage.do?news_id=N0311442270 Cheonggyecheon Stream Restoration Project https://www.landscapeperformance.org/case-study-briefs/cheonggyecheon-stream-restoration-project WSDOT VS. REALITY, Puget Sound traffic forecasts don't even pass the laugh test. https://www.sightline.org/2011/07/13/wsdot-vs-reality/ Every traffic projection is wrong https://www.cnu.org/publicsquare/2021/09/09/every-traffic-projection-wrong Traffic Forecasts Ignoring Induced Demand: a Shaky Fundament for Cost-Benefit Analyses https://www.researchgate.net/publication/268293526_Traffic_Forecasts_Ignoring_Induced_Demand_a_Shaky_Fundament_for_Cost-Benefit_Analyses/fulltext/54bc7a710cf253b50e2d2b8a/Traffic-Forecasts-Ignoring-Induced-Demand-a-Shaky-Fundament-for-Cost-Benefit-Analyses.pdf Traffic volumes declined by 34 percent on SR 520 after deployment of pricing and electronic tolling. https://www.itskrs.its.dot.gov/its/benecost.nsf/ID/78a1e4026c2ed620852581a7003b7b87 Carmageddon Leaves Los Angeles in Gridlock With I-405 Closing https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9r6gGUcAHE0 Downs–Thomson paradox https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Downs%E2%80%93Thomson_paradox Do Your Buses Get Stuck in Traffic? Not Just Bikes https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RQY6WGOoYis Effects of upgrading to cycle highways https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0966692316304008 Bikeability and the induced demand for cycling https://www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/pnas.2220515120 Build The Lanes (YouTube) https://www.youtube.com/@buildthelanes NACTO Transit Street Design Guide https://nacto.org/publication/transit-street-design-guide/introduction/why/designing-move-people/ How Arlington Is Avoiding D.C.’s Traffic Nightmare https://wamu.org/story/13/03/26/how_arlington_is_avoiding_dcs_traffic_nightmare/ ARLINGTON TRAFFIC COUNT DATA https://www.arlingtonva.us/files/sharedassets/public/v/1/projects/documents/historic-traffic-counts.pdf How Oslo Achieved Zero Pedestrian and Bicycle Fatalities https://thecityfix.com/blog/how-oslo-achieved-zero-pedestrian-and-bicycle-fatalities-and-how-others-can-apply-what-worked/ More road tolls set to cordon off Oslo https://www.newsinenglish.no/2017/06/06/more-road-tolls-set-to-cordon-off-oslo/ This video uses footage licensed by Getty Images

Comments

Anonymous

I have to send this to the Winnipeg’s City Council. They are planning on expanding Kenaston Boulevard at a mere 250 million 🤦🏻‍♂️🤦🏻‍♂️🤦🏻‍♂️

Anonymous

Another great video! I've seen Build the Lanes! He's got some good stuff and his explainer on the reasons why the Dutch are able to build their roads and infrastructure is fantastic. Given our craptastic politics here in the US, I'm not terribly optimistic about our future prospects for reversing the "one more lane bro" mindset. That Upton Sinclair quote is one I've been familiar with for years and explains so much of what's wrong. Like, it's not just Traffic Engineers, but politicians too. They are bribed...paid...donated lots of money from major builders, developers, and land speculators to maintain the status quo, which I think is a significant factor in why the recent "wakening" to Urban Planning in the US & Canada has not moved the needle. Probably won't if our protest strategy continues to be "chant, be polite, and beg harder!" Here in California, where I live, everyone is celebrating that mixed use and "missing middle" housing is starting to be built. But I'm sitting here like "but everyone still drives? Don't you think that is going to be a problem when more and more people are coming and going from the same locations?!" Because there are no viable alternatives to driving! Our buses all get stuck in the same traffic as cars, our LRT is pretty small and doesn't go to very many places, a 4 mile extension took 20 years from concept to fare service, and really should be a metro, and our bike network is inadequate, incomplete, takes just as long to build as the LRT, and their idea of separation is plastic sticks. It's just more of the same: bad land use planning with no signs of it being fixed, at all, ever. "Oh, but you see, we have a plan!" Well what good will that do if it takes literal decades to finish even a fraction of it?! Edit: Added content. Keep forgetting about "shift-enter" when using a browser.

Anonymous

Hey, so, I just read that in Denmark there was an experiment on whether fewer lanes would lead to better traffic flow. Turns out, it does! Or did, for the 14 days the experiment lasted. Sources are in Danish at https://www.berlingske.dk/samfund/glider-trafikken-hurtigere-ved-et-eller-to-spor-nyt-forsoeg-viser and https://api.vejdirektoratet.dk/sites/default/files/2024-01/Resultater%20fra%20fors%C3%B8g%20p%C3%A5%202%2B1%20vej%20%28Hiller%C3%B8dmotorvejens%20forl%C3%A6ngelse%29.pdf. But in short, turning a 2+1 road into a 1+1 road increase flow and at higher flows increase average speed, makes the speed more consistent and reduce risk of "gridlock". Lower flows reduce average speed.

Anonymous
>>129277956

Despite those lessons however they actually performed the experiment to prepare for widening the road from a 2+1 road to a 2+2 motorway.

Øyvind Wallentinsen

For those of us who want more content from Norway, I recently came across this video about Bergen, primarily the city's light rail network. It goes into detail about the lines themselves, the accessibility of the whole system (level boarding, etc.), and even how the platforms have so much thought put into how they look, and how they are easily recognizable even at great distance. He also sings the praises of all the tunnels, but I actually wish he would've also covered how there was (and is) a conscious decision to let the LRT be in daylight rather than tunnels as much as possible, to entice ridership, make travel more enjoyable, and (especially with future developments) replace roads with more people-friendly spaces shared by pedestrians, bike riders, and light rail cars. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Bs-T7bv6qTk If you (Jason) ever visit Bergen, though, you have to cover the on-board Bybanen pickle PSA. I always wonder what tourists, exchange students, and other foreign visitors make of that video. It goes like this: A man walks onto the light rail and takes a seat next to a young woman with a chihahua. In a puff of green smoke, he turns into an angry pickle. The pickle-man snarls and casts menacing looks around the light rail car as the chihahua looks on apprehensively. End PSA. It's glorious.

notjustbikes
>>130529460

Thanks for the link! RM Transit is probably the best creator out there when it comes to public transit. And he's becoming the defacto co-host of the Urbanist Agenda podcast, too! I will definitely get to Bergen some day. Not sure when though. I was last in Norway a few weeks before the LRT opened. I am now curious to see the "Pickle PSA" 😂