【Patron分享】從2020年，回看1914年的股票市場 (Patreon)

繼續是網友就近日市況如何緊扣中美關係的分析，這位金融界網友認為1914年一戰剛爆發後的股票市場狂升，正是和目前情況一樣：

Good evening, professor. The recent surge in HK stocks, or more precisely, China stocks gives me the feeling like the eve of WWI. After Austria sent the ultimatum to Serbia and both sides rallied the support, the stock markets didn't fall. Instead, the stocks surged again until the first gun shot started in Jul 28 1914. I feel that the mentality of people is too optimistic today, just like the people in 1914. People are priced in the business as usual and US not going to cut off the link. In WWI, Germany always thought it would be a short war, like 6-9months (based on their experience in Prusso- Franco War). But the war turned out to be a long war. Today, China may calculate the sanction will be short and not severe (based on Western response to 1989 event). Again, we usually underestimate the opponent and overestimate the own strength.

In addition, as we observe the monetary base in HK since 2019, the southbound inflows from stock connect  did help to cover the outflow in HK. But it couldn't compensate the outflow. What if southbound flow drained when RMB depreciates? I doubt US will just do some superficial things to China. Donald Trump, in my view, is trying to establish Trump family as a political dynasty. He will do whatever to make him reelected or helped his family to establish a solid base to continue. I feel that he will do whatever he can to get the votes. So, it may be the other round of chaos in asset markets.

以下來自另一位網友，他觀察港股已經進入「牛三/熊一」，和上述觀點不謀而合：

本人從事中港金融20年，近日之大升市，主要是因為疫情影響下，各國均不斷/甚至是無限量印銀紙。在充斥著火焰般的熱錢帶動下，第一受惠一定是金融市場。 看看A股的升幅及成交，在內地資金眼中，香港整體的市盈率是非常超值（而現時多隻大型科技／醫藥公司，雖然仍未有盈利，但股票是炒將來，佢哋個business model，只要煲到好大，有人信就得）。

今次的大升市，是有成交配合。本人從技術層面、與中外基金經理談話，及看着股票機（開市時間金睛火眼看着股票機，如看完一套電影一樣，你才可以feel the market)，再加上數隻大型巨無霸IPO 及多間回歸香港股票市場的公司帶動下，相信短期仍會是大漲小回的格局。 中資公司，人物在過去多年，已經完空滲入香港金融市場。他們要買起港股及托市（我絕對認同有），已經非常專業，及不需要外資嘅支持/技術。

股市什麼時候升完，大家都不會知道。傳統的技術分析已完全不可以解釋個市。其實現時中港兩地很多機構都非常缺cash flow ，及在水深火熱當中。多看一些資金流向數據，及看看美國真真正正會對香港金融市場推出一啲咩嘅政策，便知道港股是牛三／熊一。