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談及特朗普能否在獄中繼續競選、乃至當選總統,答案是肯定的。但一旦他真的當選,正如昨天談及,為免出現憲政危機,邏輯上,最順理成章的解決方法只有兩個可能性:罷免他,或特赦他。然而又是正如昨天談及,兩個方案的門檻都非常高(相較下自然還是後一個容易些),那如果這兩條路都不通,怎辦? 

剩下來的「唯一出路」,就是要特朗普在獄中就職美國總統,然後,在獄中對美國管治四年。

好了,純粹天馬行空,他可以怎樣在獄中管治?

如果這成為事實,無論怎樣「創造條件」,獄中的總統根本不可能全天候接觸國家機密,和各界開會,更不用說外訪。例如三軍總司令決定是否宣戰這類大事之前,一定需要參考所有機密情報,但這些情報如何傳到獄中?要是這些情報沒有其他管理人員可以看,邏輯上,又怎樣防止「特朗普同黨」傳遞其他資訊入內,去協助他繼續進行「違法行為」?但要是管理人員可以看到一切,又怎樣防止他們洩密?

所以唯一的可行性,就是總統將所有日常工作、決策、外訪諸如此類,也就是總統本來應該做的一切,全部交由副總統負責。

美國副總統的工作本來就是一位備位虛君,擔任參議院議長也是儀式性為主,本來是否忙碌,就全看總統的分工。而設立副總統的原意,本來就包括各種意想不到的突發情況,例如現在。內閣、國會議員、外國領袖等等,很快就會得到「美國副總統就是實質總統」的訊息,反正工作都是如常地過,而畢竟民選出來的總統還在,這樣的組合,依然得到民眾充份授權,也不會出現民主危機。

當然,想像副總統和內閣成員要通過探監的時間,來向正總統匯報,自然非常滑稽。而那些國家機密怎樣在全程必須錄音的探監過程彙報,更是全世界未有過的奇聞。不過如果特朗普找到一個既忠心、又懂操作民意的副總統,這樣過四年並非不可能。

而且再想下去,說不定這模式還要比特朗普本人親自管治來得更理想。因為那時候,特朗普就會名正言順成為太上皇,一切成功的政策都會歸功於他,至於失敗的政策,自然都是副總統他們在外頭執行不力,說不定他在獄中的民望反而會越來越高。一個人在獄中無所事事,最好就是著書立說,特朗普最擅長的正是文宣,屆時只要說一些抽象的語言,很容易被當成先知,信徒會不斷發現「總統大人又中」。然後特朗普可能還發現,獄中生活會成為他「耶穌化」、「烈士化」的最大資本,繼而成為未來美國歷史上「重建美國」的新國父、「新華盛頓」,亦未可知。

世事如棋日日新,既然現在的情況已經沒有人想像得到,未來又有甚麼是不可能的?

▶️ 美國之音任敬揚:天下大亂:特朗普被判34項罪名成立之後,未來幾個月甚麼都可以發生
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8ipuIaWKehA

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George

Under normal circumstances, the Democratic Party would swear to do everything in their power to prevent Trump from being elected before the election. From a rational perspective, they should strive to resolve all political and ideological conflicts prior to the November election, rather than delaying them until after the election and risking a constitutional crisis. Needless to say, how to alleviate the strong anti-Trump sentiment within their own camps is a major challenge. If Biden is reluctant to distance himself from the situation and instead insists on uttering empty words like "no one is above the law" and "the real verdict is going to be November 5 by the people," it’ll only push himself toward a disadvantage position in the election. If Trump were to be elected, the Democratic Party would be bound by their previous claims of moral superiority, weakening the flexibility in resolving constitutional crises. If other criminal prosecutions against Trump reach a verdict after he wins the election, there’ll undoubtedly be political considerations involved. Before the situation escalates to the extreme point hypothesized in the piece, it’s more likely that people from both parties have already come up with various buffering solutions. For example, if a state judge were to sentence Trump to prison, would the judge have the right to allow him to serve the sentence after leaving office, given his presidential status, the immense public interest, and the avoidance of a constitutional crisis? Alternatively, when Trump lodges an appeal, could the judge postpone the appellate proceedings so that the final decision is not announced during his presidential term? On the contrary, if the NY state judge Juan Merchan were to sentence Trump to prison in July, but the sentence were to be completed before October, would Trump place a risky bet and leverage his incarceration in his election campaigns? He could have his staff provide daily updates on social media about his imprisonment, and then use the narrative of "political persecution" as an election slogan to rally anti-left but not necessarily pro-Trump supporters, as well as sway some right-leaning swing voters. This would further disadvantage the Democratic Party. This scenario, however, seems unlikely given Trump's fiery and unfettered temperament. Whether this would be good or bad news for Democrats depends on how they analyze the ongoing saga unfolding in this high-stakes political house of cards.

悉尼 袋鼠

J6件事令到世人發現,作為儀式性嘅參議院議長,副總統响關鍵時刻都可以左右大局。 美國頭幾位總統,都係立國之父,係一齊打江山嘅好兄弟,話唔定寫憲法建立制衡機制時,無諗到呢一啲儀式位都可以玩到咁大鑊 。