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Thomas -- despite (erroneously) thinking that this had something to do with the underlying dispute over the oral contract (it doesn't) -- ultimately analyzed this question correctly, by asking which standard was the most permissible.  He correctly eliminated (A) and (C), too.

Sadly, Thomas chose (D) -- not the most permissible standard -- and is now 75-for-135 (55.6%).

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Anonymous

I think what Thomas is missing here is what D means and Andrew didn't quite manage to explain it so that he understood. The phrase "more or less probable" doesn't have the same meaning as "more likely than not". The former is a test of if the evidence moves the needle at all whereas the latter is a test of whether it moves the needle past 50% likelihood (and hence more likely the contract was formed than likely the contract was not formed). This is clearly a much higher standard when interpreted this way.

Anonymous

Yes, I was thinking the same this morning ^