CHAMPIONSHIP SUNDAY GAME PICKS (Patreon)

BUCCANEERS @ PACKERS

GAME PICK: PACKERS

SPREAD PICK: BUCCANEERS (+4)

ANALYSIS: Even though the Packers got smacked by the Bucs the last time they played earlier in the season, I expect today to go much differently. Unlike that first matchup, Davante Adams and Allen Lazard are both fully healthy this time around, and over the course of the season the Packers have become much more adept at handling blitz-heavy defenses like the one that Tampa brings to the table.

Over the course of the season - most of which took place *after* that first Bucs game - Rodgers went on to throw at a 64% clip against blitzes, with 7.6 yards per attempt, 18 touchdowns, and only 4 interceptions! Those numbers are absolutely insane, obviously, and I lean more towards Rodgers maintaining that trend today than I do on the Bucs somehow striking gold for a second time.

On the other side of the ball, I fully expect the Bucs to put up a bunch of points themselves against the Packers average at best defense (17th in DVOA), especially with their run game. The Packers are 22nd in the NFL in yards per carry allowed at 4.6, so I could see them getting gashed repeatedly by that Tampa offense line that ranked 9th in adjusted line yards per carry (4.55).

Overall, this *should* be a high-scoring game on paper. I think the over/under of 53.5 will get smashed at some point in the second half. And while I do expect the Packers to ultimately win, I also think that the Bucs have enough firepower to at least cover the 4 point spread. In the end, I’ll predict the Packers to win by a field goal, 33-30.

BILLS @ CHIEFS

GAME PICK: BILLS

SPREAD PICK: BILLS (+3)

ANALYSIS:For my overall scheme and matchup thoughts on this game, check out my Film Room episode that I just released this week on this rematch — https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=r5o__5ZfuA4

This game is extraordinarily hard to pick, but I am slightly favoring Buffalo to pull off the upset here. They have just the right mix of explosive offense, disciplined two-high safety shells on defense to limit Mahomes, and a resurgent front seven that has become a truly dominant run defense. I think they win by a field goal in Kansas City.