Week 16 NFL Picks (Patreon)

Record so far this season: 138-86

Man…last week was BRUTAL for picking games. It seems like every time I have a bad week it’s because I get a bit too overconfident in some road teams that probably don’t deserve it, so let’s see if we can turn our record around this week by still picking a bunch of road teams again! Hurraayyyyyy!
 

Go big or go home, I guess.

BUCCANEERS @ COWBOYS

Despite getting blown out by the Colts, I still like the Cowboys to win this game. They can pound the rock against a soft Bucs defense to control time of possession in their favor, and Dallas’ own defense matches up very well against Tampa. There are few corners I would rather have to stop a big body target like Mike Evans than Byron Jones. This smells like a bounce back game to me.

VIKINGS @ LIONS

The Vikings finally found a way to help Dalvin Cook take over games in the second half…and all it took was firing their OC. Obviously one game is a small sample size, but I like what I see so far from Kevin Stefanski. Minnesota – at least on paper – should be able to control this game from start to finish. 

FALCONS @ PANTHERS

I know the Falcons have a bad defense, and I know they are banged up, but there is absolutely no way that I’m going to pick a young quarterback making his first career start over Matt Ryan, Julio Jones, and Calvin Ridley. That’s just not going to happen. The Carolina defense will have to play out of their mind if they want to give Taylor Heinicke a chance to win this game.

TEXANS @ EAGLES

The Eagles match up decently well with Houston in that their deep and dominant D-Line should be able to shred Houston’s problematic O-Line, but at the same time Houston’s own defense also matches up well against this Eagles offense, which HEAVILY relies on the run game to set up the pass. The Texans have easily the best rushing defense in the league right now, and if Philly can’t run the ball, I don’t really see a way for them to outscore Deshaun Watson and company. The Eagles might need a defensive or special teams touchdown to help out Nick Foles with this one…

GIANTS @ COLTS

I truly think that the Colts are the most dangerous team in the AFC right now, and one of the three most dangerous teams in the league overall. They have *almost* everything going for them this year – tough run defense, a great ball control offense, elite quarterback play backed by an innovative head coach. If the Colts actually make the playoffs (which is still an “if”, of course), look out because they have the necessary pieces to do A LOT of damage in January. I expect them to handle the Giants today quite easily, despite Saquon Barkley’s best effort to keep Big Blue in the game all by himself.

BENGALS @ BROWNS

The Browns are a legitimately good team under Gregg Williams. If they just ripped the band aid off earlier in the season and got rid of Hue Jackson when they *should have*, it’s very possible that they would be sitting pretty with a playoff spot right now. Baker Mayfield has been phenomenal for a rookie, Nick Chubb has given them yet another explosive option on the ground, and their offensive line has gotten progressively better throughout the year. The defense is still very inconsistent (to put it nicely), but I’ll be damned if that young offense doesn’t get me super excited for the future in Cleveland. They are absolutely a better team than the Bengals at this point in time, but part of being a “good” team is consistently beating the “bad” teams that you *should* beat. Cleveland was on the other end of this kind of game for so long, and now it’s time for them to try out the bully role for once.

BILLS @ PATRIOTS

Josh Allen is super exciting, but it takes a special kind of voodoo for a rookie quarterback to win in Foxborough. Rookie QBs have NEVER won in New England during Belichick’s Patriots dynasty (’01-present), and are currently sitting at an 0-8 all time record. And you wanna know why?...confusion. Belichick’s defense has always gone out of its way to confuse rookie quarterbacks that cannot handle complex blitz packages, post-snap coverage rolls, or any sort of exotic alignments yet. He always throws the whole defensive playbook at them at once and dares them to process it all, and almost every single time, they cannot. Josh Allen is going to see some crazy stuff today that he’s never, ever seen before, and ultimately one of those looks is going to generate the turnover that wins the game for New England.

PACKERS @ JETS

I have almost no faith in the Packers, but that’s still more faith than I have in the Jets. Were it not for Sam Darnold being an awesome young quarterback, this Jets squad might be vying for the first overall pick this season. Their overall level of talent on offense around Darnold is just laughable, with the skill positions in particular being a wasteland of names you hope to never see starting for your own team. Whenever they do eventually get better receiving, running, and blocking talent around Darnold I do think that this could be a legitimately dangerous team, but for now….yikes. The Jets’ only shot to win this game is for their exciting young secondary to make enough plays to keep it close while Darnold works his magic, but that’s a tough ask against Aaron Rodgers (even though Rodgers has certainly had a down year himself). If Green Bay loses this game, their problems are much worse than we thought.

JAGUARS @ DOLPHINS

The Jaguars are, to put it bluntly, horrible. It’s not entirely their own fault because they have sustained a ton of injuries on offense, especially along the line, and their defense is constantly gassed because the offense can’t stay on the field. But still, watching Jacksonville is pretty painful these days. This team seems to have quit, and even though early in the season I was looking at this game as a potential showdown between AFC Wildcard hopefuls, now it’s a battle between two AFC “what could have beens”. The Dolphins should win because they have far and away more talent left on the field that hasn’t been put on IR, but I’m still super disappointed that we were robbed of a potentially great game. Hopefully the Jags can come back healthy and ready to rebound next season.

BEARS @ 49ERS

It’s time to test the theory of “what happens to the Bears defense without Eddie Jackson?”. I still think that Chicago will be fine overall and squeak out a narrow victory, but this game will be anything but easy for them. The 49ers are still a very sneaky team, even without their top two quarterbacks going into the season, because Kyle Shanahan has a habit of finding every weakness you’ve got and exploiting it with ruthless precision. Mitch Trubisky needs to step up in a huge way and play a clean game from start to finish, because I’m not entirely sure that their defense will be able to carry the team as they usually do today.

RAMS @ CARDINALS

If there was ever a time for the Rams to vent some frustration on a clearly inferior team to get their confidence up for a playoff run, this is it. Todd Gurley is a true game time decision, which is a wee bit concerning, but I really liked what I saw from John Kelly in the preseason and I think their run game should still be fine with him overall if Gurley can’t play. That kid has a lot of twitch to him, and more power than you expect when he lowers those pads. I almost hope that Gurley sits out just so we can see what Kelly can do with a full workload for the week. If the run game can produce, then Jared Goff will produce. And if Jared Goff can produce, the Rams should win this game easily. 

STEELERS @ SAINTS

The Saints defense has been spectacular as of late, and you could argue that the front seven has damn near carried this team while the offense took a step back. The good news for the Saints, however, is that they are finally back to playing in New Orleans, which (usually) means their offense will get back to their unstoppable ways. The Steelers defense is no joke, and if this game was in Pittsburgh I would not be surprised to see Drew Brees held to less than 20 points again, but since it’s in the dome?...yeah, mark me down for the Saints to cover the spread. This team has almost magical qualities when they play in New Orleans, and for some reason all of their problems just melt away during home games. It is going to take a truly Herculean effort from Big Ben, JuJu, and Antonio Brown to keep up in this one – and to be honest they might be able to do it – but I learned a long time ago never to bet against the Saints at home. Never.

CHIEFS @ SEAHAWKS

If there was any quarterback in the league that could go into Seattle and outduel Russell Wilson in primetime, it’s Pat Mahomes. This Seahawks defense has performed surprisingly well overall this season considering that they went through a mild rebuild last Spring, but they haven’t seen anything like this KC aerial attack this year. Mahomes is the real freakin’ deal, and he is perfectly suited to exploit those seams in Seattle’s cover three by throwing darts to Hill and Kelce deep down the field. Throw in the fact that the Chiefs’ defense is noticeably better with Eric Berry back on the field, and I think KC might be perfectly built to pull off this win. It’ll be close, of course, but in a tight race for the first seed in the AFC, ANY win is a good win.

BRONCOS @ RAIDERS

The Raiders are a disaster, and the Broncos are (reportedly) going to fire Vance Joseph after the season. Both of these teams vastly underperformed this year relative to their expectations back in the summer, but overall I still feel like the Broncos are a far superior team. The Raiders have terrible speed on defense, so I expect Denver’s rookie duo of Lindsay and Sutton to put up huge numbers, and on the other side of the ball Miller and Chubb will probably make life hell for Derek Carr. The Broncos are a truly talented roster, but they were just unlucky enough to have a coaching staff that gave away several games with poor clock management and decision making. If they can get a better head coach next season, look out for Denver – I know a snake in the grass when I see one.