Indian mirage (Patreon)

In among all the weird news of the last few weeks was a wee announcement from National that didn't garner much coverage.

Christopher Luxon announced that he would make getting a Free Trade Deal with India a major priority of his Government.

In speech at the India - New Zealand summit, Luxon couldn't wait more than three sentences before dropping this jewel:

As some of you know, before coming to politics two and a half years ago, I had a career in business, most recently as CEO of Air New Zealand but, before that, at Unilever.

I love it when joke MPs aren't in on the joke.

But within that context of having been CEO of Air NZ, and his time at Unilever, Luxon said he'd visited India several times and loved it.

Digression: Luxon also included this part early in his speech:

"I hope it’s not contentious for me to say at an India-New Zealand summit that, in my view, New Zealand is the best country on planet Earth."

And I always find it weird the way Luxon gets all American with his hyperbole. And also the way he keeps saying "planet Earth", and not just "Earth", or "the planet".

And there are other weird verbal tics in that speech that I won't dwell on, but will highlight:

"It’s a generalisation, of course, but the community of Indian New Zealanders are hard-working, self-reliant, and share many of the values of the National Party – reward for achievement, competitive enterprise, the importance of education, and taking personal responsibility seriously."

What? We're just stereotyping races now? Bold.

But on to my main point: Luxon's big ta da moment in this speech was the following:

Therefore, I’m pleased to announce to you today that under a National government I lead, reaching a trade agreement with India will be a major strategic priority.

You'd think a "major strategic priority" would merit some explanation. But there's not much in there. And you kind of get the impression that Luxon thinks he could just get on the blower to Modi and we'd have a free trade agreement done and dusted.

You might think that Luxon was just spouting shit because he was making a speech at the India - New Zealand summit, and this wasn't a serious policy. Except National then rushed out a press release which is equally scant on detail.

There's a certain naivety to Luxon's leadership. I think he genuinely believes that he'd be able to get an FTA with India done pretty quickly. He's that sort of leader/boss who thinks he can just say a thing and then minions will make it happen.

The thing with India is that it's pretty bloody protectionist. Especially with a nationalist like Modi in power. There's a massive reluctance to open up its markets to foreign goods and services.

India's agriculture sector is heavily subsidised, which makes it difficult for foreign farmers to compete on a level playing field. And when you look at what New Zealand likes to trade its beef, lamb, and milk (powder).

If there's one thing India is not interested in importing, it's cows. They're somewhat sacred over there. And not only are cows not eaten, but they sure do supply a lot of milk.

India's dairy sector is one of the largest in the world. There are more than 80 million dairy farms with about 300 million dairy animals. The sector is a major source of livelihood for millions of farmers and rural households, contributing significantly to India's economy. Does Luxon think India is going to give NZ's dairy sector free access to an Indian market that is sustained by its own dairy?

India actually produces more than 15% of the world's milk. Probs not that keen on letting in tariff-free New Zealand milk, eh?

One thing we could offer India is free access to New Zealand for students and tourists. But I'm not sure we're ready infrastructure-wise to do that are we?

Claiming India might be New Zealand's shining city on the hill of trade suggests that Luxon is not a serious politician.