The Chips are no longer down (Patreon)

An earlier version of this said JA had handed the election to Labour. I'm a chump. I meant National.

So I've been saying that I thought Labour would stumble over the line this year. There weren't many commentators predicting a Labour win, I think me and Matthew Hooton were it.

I'd predicted it off the back of the world going to shit, including us. And then Labour pointing to Jacinda and asking "who do you want to get us through this NZ? Someone who's stared down terrorism, volcanoes, and a pandemic? Or a walking LinkedIn post?"

And then JA went and quit.

My first reaction was she'd just handed the election to National. Andrea Vance rushed out a column saying the same thing.

But now I'm not so sure. Firstly, the leadership transition was the cleanest I've ever seen. Absolutely smooth. We don't know the internal machinations but externally it looks like everyone quickly coalesced around Hipkins.

I had one National MP message me to say that Chippy was the one they feared most*.

Labour people I've spoken to since it happened said that when JA told everyone the initial reaction was despair, but that's given way to optimism that they weren't expecting.

I've never seen a party so forcefully take control of the narrative at the beginning of the year. There has been no oxygen for anyone. Chippy is the shiny new toy and he's revelling in the glow.

I'm looking forward to the Cabinet reshuffle. This will give us a clue about who is on the rise and who might be on the way out.

I'd expect promotions for Kiritapu Allan and Kieran McAnulty. Those two are the rising stars of Labour. Barb Edmonds might find herself in cabinet and Camilla Belich can expect some more responsibility too.

Dr Verrall will probably become the full health minister but other than that I'm unsure.

The Greens also stand to gain. I think one of the issues with JA is that she became a bit of a rorschach test. She looked and sounded like a progressive so won a lot of those votes. Except she was always a small "c" conservative. Chippy is obviously not as progressive so the Greens should benefit. I also think Labour may feel more comfortable not having to be as progressive as people demanded.

Luxon is the biggest loser. National would have had a strategy for JA and now that's gone. They also would have expected some more coverage from their retreat but now it's all about Chippy. And Chippy can still run an experience vs naivety campaign given he's been there since 2008, and has been Minister of practically everything.

All in all this changes the emerging narrative that it was a fait accompli that National would win. But Labour still have a lot of work to do, because regardless of the leadership they're still the party that has not delivered as well as they should have. One chip does not a party make.


*I'm always aware that I could be being lied to in these situations, that I'm told this stuff to pass it on. Am I a useful idiot? Probably.