The fundamentals (Patreon)

With about twelve months to go until an election, polls stop being hypothetical and we can start making proper assessments.

At the moment it's pretty damn close. In the most recent Talbot Mills corporate poll* the "right" block of National and ACT was at 48%, and the "left" block of Labour, Greens, and Te Paati Māori, was on 47%.

Basically it's a coin toss.

But really it shouldn't be. If you look at the fundamentals of the electorate the opposition should be miles ahead. Twelve months out from the 2008 election and National alone was about 10 points ahead of Labour.

At the moment everything sucks. Inflation is shit. The weather has been shit. Climate emergencies are getting worse. Covid has been fucking our shit. Interest rates are high and going to get much higher. We keep being told unemployment is about to explode.

All these sorts of things would usually have us wanting to change. And yet, National can't put clear distance between it and Labour.

I think Luxon is a major contributor to this. He's been in the gig for over 9 months now and he's a lot worse than anyone expected. This John Key protégé has none of Key's charisma or political instincts. Instead he's an interchangeable bald head on a walking LinkedIn post.

This is magnified all the more by how strong Nicola Willis has been as a performer. One can't help but think that if the leadership was round the other way, National would likely be firmly in charge.

Labour still has strong chance of forming a government after the next election, but one thing it needs to get clear on is how it plans to help me. The voter. Cos right now I hear a lot of policies and solutions but I'm not being told or shown what the outcomes of those policies will be. How will my life look every morning when I wake up?

National is likely to start asking the electorate if they are better or worse off than 2020, and if you're worse you should vote National. Except while we all may be worse off, this is a global problem. And the question should be would you have been better or worse off with National in charge.

Way worse with National in my view.

Yes this Labour Government has failed to deliver on numerous key promises, but you know what, at least they're trying. Because National has promised to cut taxes at a time we've just had a pandemic that has fucked our health system. The well off will be even more well off, and will still likely use private health care, while us plebs might have about $2 more a week, but the public services we rely on will starve again.

The health infrastructure will decay. We'll struggle to get doctors and nurses because the job will just look so awful that people won't want to do it.

Same with teaching.

Same with emergency services.

But we'll probably get some fucking good roads.

But you know the one factor that means I could never vote National, it's their decision that climate change isn't worth doing anything about. That we should just let other countries who emit more do something. Why risk the economy when the US, China, and India continue to belch out pollution?

Because the economy isn't necessarily polluting. The economy is people. The economy is our environment. The economy is us. And so National is willing to sacrifice the future of my child for some CEO's P&L spreadsheet.

So come on Labour. This election is there to win, just show us why you deserve it. Otherwise it's generic Pākehā businessman again.



*Talbot Mills used to be UMR, it's Labour's pollsters. But this poll is done for its corporate clients, not Labour.