Luxon? Luxoff? (Patreon)

He's been leader for two weeks. Suddenly National has a spring in his step. But is he really the messiah? Or is he just a naughty little boy?

The first disgruntled call came in just before the caucus voted Luxon in as leader. A National MP was displeased at how things had shaken out. Subsequent messages that have been sent to me suggest all is not well in the House of Lux.

Many MPs are confident, they're happy, they think they've turned a corner. But they need to remember that they're still the same 33 losers who were there throughout the last year and a bit. Fucking up every opportunity that came there way.

Labour was able to Jacinda its way to a decent election result in 2017 because the country had no time to get used to Jacinda and the Labour Party. We just saw Jacinda. We forgot that behind here were the same group that had dicked around with Goff, Shearer, Cunliffe, and Little. Luxon has to navigate two years until an election.

After the first couple of days the verdict came in from a Nat "Look for a new guy guy he did pretty good". So far, so positive. The media narrative initially was brutal. The first story was how he took a rented Mercedes the 100m distance to get to parliament. Then numerous pieces highlighted the fact he owned 7 seven houses, when for a huge number of Kiwis they can't even get one. When quizzed on this by Morning Report he couldn't see why this would be an issue. 

Jenna Lynch from Newshub got him to admit on camera that he viewed abortion as tantamount to murder. Which is ...ummmm... not a good position to take. I'm not a woman. I'm not going to pretend to speak on behalf of them. But I am someone who believes that women should have bodily autonomy. They're not someone who Luxon should dictate how they get to treat their bodies. I think this is going to become problematic. Andrea Vance nailed it in a piece yesterday; I recommend you go read it.

He's also been quizzed on his faith and said he hasn't been in his lunatic church for like 6 years. Which I'm told is just straight up bullshit. I've been told he was seen in the Upper Room in 2019. 

Other than this, my own take is that he's had a pretty good start. He's seem confident, assured, on point, charming etc. He's like a slightly shitty John Key. He's got all Key's smarts and business acument, but none of Key's likeability or charisma. His strategy of taking on the PM on Covid seems dumb. It's the one area that this Government has done really well in.

However there are two things that drive voters to you. A talismanic leader, and actually good policies. Covid has completely upended the rule book when it comes to politics. After spending the better part of three decades not knowing its place, the left is suddenly in the ascendancy again. Workers have recognised that they got fucked during the pandemic, while the capital owning classes made bank. The great resignation that's occurring throughout much of the Global North is a sign of worker solidarity. In the US, we're seeing unionisation occur for companies like Starbucks, and Kellog is in the middle of a very nasty strike.

Over in NZ we've got the Fair Pay Agreement legislation winding its way through the house, something that I think, if explained properly, will be very popular with the populace [I'm working on a more fulsome piece in response to some of that bullshit that's been floating around about the Brahmin Left].

All this is to say that it's all well and good having a shiny new toy as leader of the National Party, but unless they come up with some new and innovate policies that are appealing to workers then they're going to be relegated to opposition for a long time.

Despite leaving an awful lot to be desired for the middle class and below, Labour is still a better shout than National.

So over the summer I expect National's whizz-bang backroom that is being put together (and scouted by Wayne Eagleson who was a fucking good Chief of Staff), will be rebuilding Christopher Luxon and National. 

This is what they did to Key. A few key players got together and decided that NZ could tolerate someone worth $50M but no more, and so it was leaked to the NBR that this was what Key was worth, despite the fact he was worth four or five times that. This figure never budged. It was always assumed that Key was worth $50M. They didn't quite get the planning time for Luxo, but they'll be busy on that this summer.

The ACT Party is clearly worried. I'm already being sent things to attack Luxo with from them. They want to hold on to their gains from National. Labour is a little bit worried, they're expecting National to come back next year better than it was - which isn't hard - but they're not shitting their daks just yet.

Ultimately though, aside from a few political losers like me, most people don't actually give a fuck about politics. So long as Jacinda and Labour makes people feel like they're ok, they'll be comfortable come 2023.