The spull that wasn't ... yet? (Patreon)

Saturday's alright for fighting. If you're one of the tragically online folk, like I am.

I talk to a lot of people. From all sides of the political spectrum. I do it because I'm a huge nerd, and because it's part of my job.

On Saturday afternoon I glanced at Twitter and saw Shane Te Pou announcing that the spill was on - someone was aiming to roll Collins.

I knew there'd been a lot of chatter but I hadn't heard anything definite, so I checked in with a few people; from National, from Labour and from the Media.

It came back unanimous; the spill was on.

These were National MPs saying that numbers were being run. Labour MPs saying they'd been told it was happening. And others.

So I stuck my neck out and tweeted that the spill was on.

The only other time I've gone for it with word that a spill was on was when I was told that Muller + Kaye were running numbers, and so Paula Bennett was trying to counter manoeuvre. That one was right, it just took a wee while before it became right. But it sure did gee it into action.

This time I'm still fairly sure it is happening, just in slow motion.

It seems Bridges is running the numbers. You had columns from Fran O'Sullivan and Claire Trevett from the weekend saying that Collins' days as leader were numbered. Those columns don't exist in a vaccuum. Someone was running up the flag.

I wasn't as confident as Te Pou who was tweeting out specifics of deals being done - Reti giving up deputy to hold health, Bish getting finance or some shit. I don't know if that was Shane just bullshitting or if he was privy to more info than me.

Of course you should take what I say with a grain of salt when it comes to predictions. I'm a useful idiot to a lot of people who tell me things in the hopes I'll share them. I've been shown countless polling from parties that would serve them well if it made its way out. I've also been told utter bullshit like there were photos of a particular MP taking drugs.

I don't share much of what I get because I don't like to be used and abused too often. I do share some of it though.

But I will never reveal who told me anything. There were a bunch of people asking me to reveal who told me the spull was on if it didn't come through. And that would just be dumb right? Because then nobody would tell me anything ever again.

So I dunno. I think the spull is still happening, but more slowly than I'd been lead to believe. Perhaps they're waiting for a shitty poll to come out. Perhaps I'm just a dumbass. Perhaps all of these are true?