Strong team (Patreon)

Jesus Christ.

What an utter shitshow these last couple of weeks have been. 

To see where we are now it's worth looking back about 18 months. That was the first time a key group of National Party MPs and supporters decided that Simon Bridges had no chance of winning the election. This was about the time of the Jami-Lee Ross scandal.

They all thought Muller was definitely a leader in waiting but he wasn't ready yet. Collins was going to be installed.

Except she was too unpopular in caucus. Unlike the Greens and Labour who have turned control of their leadership over to the wider party, it's the National caucus that decides the leader.

This meant those puppet masters had to wait. But then Simon started pulling the party together. Suddenly polling was starting to look a bit better. In fact six months ago there were a couple of polls out that showed National + ACT ahead of Labour + Greens with NZFirst out of parliament.

The caucus was still deeply divided. People like me were getting leaks; and I never have National's best interests at heart. And this wasn't just one MP either. This was several.

And then we had COVID.

And everyone knows how the next few months played out.

Simon consistently got his tone wrong with criticising the Government's COVID response. National plunged. And plunged. And plunged. Something had to happen.

That same group who thought Muller had potential started talking. Should they wait until after the election? Or should they move now? They had their hands forced by two things. First off was a bunch of MPs who were looking at joblessness following the election if Simon stayed on, they were desperate. And then secondly Simon called Todd out and said there was a coup attempt and he would force the vote.

The coup was reasonably well executed. 

But then the blunders began.

Almost immediately Todd became crippled with impostor syndrome. He didn't think he was up to it. He started refusing every media request except for the ones he couldn't escape. He leant on Kaye for everything. If someone brought him a press release or a speech he needed it to be seen by Kaye before he could approve it.

Despite the bumbling uselessness, National started a slow climb back up. At one stage, according to National's internal polling, National + ACT were only 3 points behind Labour + Greens. NZFirst was stuck on 1%.

Then the Boag got involved and things snowballed. I covered that chain of events in this post and in a guest column for the Sunday Star Times.

Muller was asked on to Q&A to defend both Woodhouse and his own response to the Boag leak. He refused. He also didn't want anyone from National appearing. Nikki Kaye decided that wasn't good enough and she went on. I wrote about that interview here. 

Then Muller decided he wasn't going to continue with the job. 

Key National folk had no idea this was coming. They knew he was struggling but not to extent he was. An emergency call was made late on Monday evening with the senior MPs where they were told. A statement was pushed out first thing Tuesday morning.

By that stage some of Muller's most ardent supporters had already been on the phone to Collins telling her that the party needed her.

This is what Collins wanted the whole time. She didn't want to win a vote by a small margin. She wanted the caucus on its knees coming to her begging. She got her wish.

Everything else has been fairly well canvassed.

Collins in her first few days as leader has been fine. She's been what you'd expect a leader to be. Some of the fawning coverage largely stems from just how incompetent the previous men were that were the leaders.

She's made some unexpected calls. She had previously said she would cross the floor on the Carbon Zero vote when Simon was leader. She didn't end up doing that, but is now suddenly comfortable with the Carbon Zero Act.

She has also talked up National's approach to Māori, suggesting that the party might run candidates in the Māori electorates.

But Collins is still Collins. And Amy Adams has got the hell out of dodge because of her. After un-retiring for Muller, Collins being leader was not something she could abide, so she was out. Kaye decided that the whole thing was not worth the hassle so she bailed too.  Bridges straight up told a media interview he didn't vote for her as leader.

With Kaye and Adams out and Muller showing he's not the rising star he was touted as, National's suggestion and first line of its campaign slogan - STRONG TEAM - is a joke.

Where Muller would criticise Labour for having a couple of stand-out performers and then a bunch of empty chairs, Collins does not have that luxury. The picture at the top here represents key movements in the National Party. There are a lot of red crosses. Those are the people who were in caucus when Bridges was leader and have announced that they are out at the election.

National nearly pulled off a phenomenal trick. Staying united throughout an entire term in opposition. But then with the finish line in sight they have completely fallen apart.

Whether Collins can pull them together or not I dunno. Seems unlikely. If the caucus had hitherto gone out of their way to not have her as leader then they've only gone to her out of desperation, not because they want it this way.

Several people in National have told me they don't want a dirty campaign. They don't want scurrilous rumours being spread or lies being told. I don't know if that's me being played, we'll see. 

Meanwhile Labour has cocked an eyebrow at the developments. They still believe they'll end up in Government, but the slightest hint of concern has crept in.