How to campaign: The Green Party (Patreon)

Over the coming weeks I plan on writing a column setting out how I would design an election campaign for each party (that is currently in Parliament).

This first one is the Green Party.

Current status: They'll be getting a bit nervous in Green Party HQ. The party has been hovering between 4-6 per cent for a while now and they'll want that to grow. Especially given that the Greens seem to overpoll leading up to the election, then underperform on the day. That said, if there was ever going to be an election that would see the Greens wiped out of Parliament, we might have assumed it would have been 2017 when Jacindamania hit, combined with its own internal disater when Metiria was forced into resigning.

What to campaign on: There are a couple of things the Greens should make as their central planks: the environment and the left. The environment is a no brainer. It's what created the Greens, it's what drove the Greens and it's where the party has its natural base and strength. Prior to Covid-19, climate change was the issue. It looked like it could be a banner year for the Greens. There was the changes to the ETS that went through parliament, the Carbon Zero Act that was passed (in a weakened state) and things like the plastic bag ban. Previously, minor parties have sought to differentiate themselves from their bigger MMP partners in the lead-up to elections by squabbling, but I think the Greens should seek to shout how well they've done working with Labour. 

There is still a lot to be done around climate change, but given people's priorities are on health and the economy, this is a tough sell. That doesn't mean the party shouldn't campaign hard on climate issues, it just means it'll have to campaign harder, or also bump other issues up as priorities and this is where the left comes in.

Due to Labour's lack of a spine or the fact it's just not very left at all, it's been weak on progressive issues. This has left it vulnerable on the left flank. The Greens need to fill that. Jacinda Ardern ruled out a Capital Gains Tax while she was Prime Minister which means the Greens have had that taken off the table for them too - to campaign on one now would effectively be campaigning against Jacinda, and ...good luck. 

No, the Greens need to go hard on increased benefits (and picking up other Welfare Expert Advisory Group recommendations), making the minimum wage at the living wage, and something attention grabbing like a wealth tax. At the moment, nobody wants to tinker with the tax system out of fear. The Greens always struggled with having economic ideas because people thought they had no economic nous whatsoever. Even when Russel Norman was the de facto leader of the opposition, his economic ideas were easily dismissed - case in point, when Russel recommended there be quantitative easing following the 2008 GFC, something that central banks all around the world were doing, the idea was dismissed with "oh there's the silly Greens, wanting to print money! They'll turn us into Zimbabwe! Hohoho!". And this stuck because nobody was sure if the Greens could be trusted with the treasury benches.

Even when I worked with them as the head of policy and communications, we would talk about how difficult it was for us to get heard on economic issues because we were so easily dismissed. We envisioned getting in, spending one term in a relatively conservative position economically, demonstrating that we could do it, then coming out with more creative ideas. Which is exactly the situation the party finds themself in now.

I'm personally not a huge fan of the UBI, but that is something the party could introduce. Or a job guarantee (which I am more in favour of). 

Everyone knows intrinsically that our tax system is fucked. It favours people who have their money tied up in unproductive things like houses, while disproportionately pinging people who actually work for their money. Putting in a wealth tax or a land tax is a way to grab attention, make us start thinking more openly about these things and then potentially getting them across the line in coalition negotiations.

Speaking of negotiations, the party needs to harden up there too. Time and time again the Green Party has been stymied by NZFirst or Labour and it might be because the negotiating way back in 2017 was soft, or maybe because the party won't play hard ball now but it needs to learn to play politics. The thing that wasn't learned over the course of this term was that while Labour+Greens needed NZFirst to get things over the line, Labour+NZFirst also needed the Greens to get things over the line. So when Winston wanted to slush funds to the racing industry, the Green Party could have told him no, unless they got things that they wanted. Especially since the Greens were only in a confidence and supply agreement and so could say no to more things - NZFirst is in a coalition agreement, so is more tightly bound to decisions.

The other thing the Greens has going for it that just about no other party does is the variety of talent. Despite having a caucus of just eight, you could almost use any of the eight to campaign, they're all good politicians.

James Shaw appeals to a certain slice of society that likes their environmentalists to wear suits and be a wee bit conservative, while Eugenie Sage speaks to an older school environmentalist who might live in the Nelson region and make a lot of pottery. Julie Anne Genter is an expert on transport - moreso than anybody else in parliament that's for sure - so she can make a lot of noise about public transport and town planning.  Chlöe Swarbrick appeals to young urban libs, Marama Davidson has roots with the activist left and with Māori, Jan Logie has probably been their best performing MP this term, making a huge different for victims of sexual violence, she's got a lot she can point to, while  Golriz Ghahraman also appeals to the left of the party and has a giant brain for things constitutional. She is also NZ's first refugee MP and speaks to that constituency brilliantly (for the sake of this exercise I've left Gareth off as he's retiring).

There are also other more unexpected areas the Greens could go for. Tech is a huge and growing area for New Zealand and no party seems to want to take a lead on it (this would have been Gareth's area to campaign).

The Greens need to get noisy. And this could mean picking a fight with NZFirst. There is a desire to be high minded about these things and rise above that sort of politicking. But that needs to be shelved for now as the party is starved of oxygen by Jacinda and Covid.

Prediction: I'm usually loathe to make predictions. Especially because right now the electorate is in such a state of flux, but if Labour's vote holds up then I think the Greens will pick up a few soft Labour voters who feel comfortable voting for the Greens and end up around 6-7%. If Labour's vote doesn't hold up then it'll be touch and go and it'll be around 5-6%. Either way, I think they'll just sneak back in.