Oof (Patreon)

Like...we knew it would be bad. But whew. That poll is real bad.

Obviously there's incumbency advantage going on. When there's a disaster, people rally around the leadership if they're seen to be handling the disaster well. So that would explain a large part of the surge. But also Simon is going to have to take some responsibility.

As soon as it was reported my phone lit up with National folk. "He has to go." "We need to strike now." "The party is fucked." 

From what I hear there's a chance Muller has the numbers now, but he doesn't want to bloody his hands by moving first so is taking the cowards way out and is trying to goad Collins into making the first move.

There were some other interesting tidbits beyond the horror showing of National being 26 points back. 

First off the Greens holding up in the face of Labour being so stratospheric is remarkable. Kudos to you Green Party.

But I was staggered by the 91% who supported the four-week lockdown. Real kick in the face for the Plan B crowd and for Simon who was advocating for an earlier release. 

But the thing that really got me was right at the end of Newshub's clip, they talked about the PM and Simon getting hair cuts. And Simon said "there certainly isn't any hair dye in mine", having a shot at the PM for Clarke Gayford's comments about dying her hair.

One National MP said to me "every woman who dyes her hair and saw that clip will just think he's a cunt". 

It's those sort of unnecessary own-goals that make him so unlikeable and unpopular. Mate, you can't be having shots like that at the most popular PM Newshub has ever polled for, especially when you are FIFTY-FIVE points back in preferred Prime Minister ratings.

This is a recess week, so National MPs will be messaging one-another but won't be able to get together until next week. There's a Colmar Brunton poll out in the field, and I imagine that will go to air next Monday meaning that will shape a lot of the conversation for them. I can't see that poll saving him, but CB polls do tend to favour National more the Newshub's.

There are still a few outcomes though. Collins could strike and get the numbers for being the one to have the courage to move. Muller could wait and then try to present himself as the consensus candidate. Hell, even Bennett and Mitchell now have chances. 

But right now, the left should probably start a Facebook group: Left Wing voters who support Simon Bridges as National Leader. We need him now, more than ever.