TOTW Hype Trading (Patreon)

What is TOTW Hype Trading?

TOTW Hype Trading is the idea to make a profit through the hype around the next potential TOTW. Cards that are included in the next TOTW go out-of-packs and that increases the trading demand for the cards ahead of the next TOTW. 

When to apply

When a real-life Football Player has a good game, he has a shout for the next TOTW. That player being in the TOTW means that the Gold Card is removed from the packs for a week. While being out of packs for a week, he has the chance to increase in price. The chance to increase in price is already enough to increase the current demand and price ahead of the TOTW reveal. 

We aim to get the cards after a good performance to sell in the following days before the release of the TOTW or even after the release of the TOTW when the card is out-of-packs. Both selling windows are recommended and we will decide the specific selling recommendation individually based on the card and the current market situation. 

Buying and Selling Windows

I want to make this as general as possible and we will simplify a lot. I will still show you some common patterns but these are not always the case. 

The most common pattern for this method is the spike and fall after a good performance. You can see a card going high after a good game, but then start to slowly go lower again when the game finishes or other content gets released. The spike is a good selling window if you already own the card and the drop after the game is a good buying window if you are planning on buying the card. In most cases, the card continues to rise after a while as more Traders are talking about the good performance! 

As most games are on the weekend, the Squad Battle Rewards are another good buying window for potential TOTW Cards. The supply allows us to look for some low prices around Sunday and Monday. 

Monday to Tuesday is another potential selling window. Most TOTW predictions are getting posted around Monday to Tuesday and people start to buy the cards to make a profit. However, they are already too late and we can sell in the hype. 

Tuesday to Wednesday is another buying window. This buying window depends on the content, but sometimes we get a Pack SBC and the market sees some supply. Looking for some low prices then is also a solid idea. If there are no low prices then we most likely skip it. 

The last safe sell window is just before the TOTW drops. Around 1-12 hours before the TOTW release is a good point to cash out on the hype without risking much. If you are confident with your buys, you can even hold until 6 p.m. for the announcement and sell them straight after knowing the TOTW.

Selling Windows after the release of the TOTW depends on the out-of-pack rise and the general market situation. We will let you know if we see the potential of a rise and give you recommendations if we think it's smart to hold a card for the out-of-pack rise. The very latest selling window is Saturday-Monday, that’s when the card has been out of packs for some days already and is about to be back in packs on Wednesday.  

Special Cases

Surprising TOTW Cards

Sometimes we get cards included in the TOTW that weren’t in any prediction and these can have a huge jump in price at the TOTW release. You can use this opportunity for some Rush Trading and sell immediately after the short demand again. This is one of the strongest Rush Trading opportunities and prices can jump very high. 

Leaked TOTW

Public leaks can shift the buying and selling windows a lot. Most of the time we get public leaks around the TOTW on Wednesday mornings and prices start to move based on that new information. Buying into the leaks is not recommended unless it’s a surprising TOTW and the price is not inflated yet. Selling into the leaks is recommended to catch more of the hype. 

Unfortunately, there is also the risk of your card not being included in the TOTW and leaks can start a massive downtrend even before the TOTW release. You can avoid this risk if you sell your cards before Tuesday evening. 

Summary

- Aim to get cards ahead of other people

- There are multiple buying and selling windows

- Leaks can change the market