Tim Stillman’s Match Preview: Wolves Away (Patreon)

All season, Unai Emery has been fighting a war against the balance of his squad which, crudely, has come down to whether or not he fields a fourth attacker. Sometimes he fields Iwobi and Mkhitaryan behind a lone striker, on other occasions, like against Crystal Palace on Sunday, he will field Aubameyang and Lacazette together with a number 10 behind them.

Arsenal’s better performances tend to occur when they have a fourth player providing some support to a front three. The form of the team experienced an uptick in 2019 when Aaron Ramsey and Mesut Özil were reintroduced into the starting XI. Either with both playing behind a front two, or with one of them providing a bridge between Iwobi and Mkhitaryan in the inside forward positions.

Ramsey has become a crucial player lately because he goes a long way to solving that enigma by playing as a number 8- his favoured position. Ramsey is capable of playing as part of a double pivot, but providing that buttress for the front 3 with his late runs into the area too.

Because finding that supporting actor to the front 3 means sacrificing a little defensive protection. I think it is clear by now that Emery only truly trusts Sokratis and Koscielny as centre halves and, even then, Koscielny’s physical state must be regarded as at least slightly fragile. Emery has come to depend on a back 3 because it helps him to hide Mustafi and / or Mavropanos and Nacho Monreal is not really suited to a centre half pairing.

At Wolves, Emery will again grapple with the dilemma of how to support his attack without exposing his threadbare defence. But Arsenal need a fourth attacker against Wolves. It’s a problem with this squad in general, the lack of goalscorers beyond the two strikers. Personally, I would play Özil between Mkhitaryan and Iwobi behind either Lacazette or Aubameyang, with a midfield double pivot playing in front of a back four.

I understand Emery erring on the side of caution given his defensive options and much will depend on Laurent Koscielny’s condition. If Koscielny and Sokratis can play together, Arsenal can certainly play a back four to enable a 4-2-3-1 shape. Wolves are very adept at playing on the counter attack, so playing a double pivot in midfield will be an attractive option for Emery. But he has to make sure Arsenal’s offensive potential is at its maximum.