UFC Austin Breakdown and Predictions (Patreon)

Lightweight, Beneil Dariush (22-5-1) vs. Arman Tsarukyan (20-3):

This is a great fight between two top guys in the division. Both are excellent wrestlers/grapplers but both have excellent TDD and can scramble very well. I'd love to see the grappling exchanges though and I'd slightly favor Tsarukyan. It will probably come down to who has the striking advantage.  I like the diversity of Tsarukyan more. He throws in volume, mixes in combinations, and solid kickboxing shown. He's also gonna be faster than Dariush. I think this is a super close fight as it should be a pick-em. I like Tsarukyan to win by decision due to more output and maybe being able to mix in some takedowns.

Lightweight, Jalin Turner (13-7) vs. Bobby Green (31-14-1):

Turner is taking this fight on short notice and it's still just as a good fight if it was still Hooker. Even though Hooker beat Turner I believe Turner is a tougher match-up for Green. Green is a slick striker that's boxing-oriented. Turner has slick hands as well but has more weapons with his kicks on the outside. Green could very well have problems finding his shots against a much longer Turner. In a pure stand-up fight, I favor Turner because of his length and having more weapons. I'm picking Turner by decision.

Bantamweight, Rob Font (20-7) vs. Deiveson Figueiredo (21-3-1):

In a fight full of interesting matchups this is the most interesting. Figueiredo is moving up from flyweight but it's a move he should've done a long time ago. Font is coming off a dominant loss but it was to Sandhagen and all Sandhagen did was hold him down for five rounds. Figueiredo will wanna bang with Font and it's a contrast of styles. Font is more about the basics with excellent boxing skills. Figueiredo is more about the controlled chaos style and his power. Even though Figueiredo is known for his power that's at 125 and it may not translate to bantamweight. Font also doesn't get finished never getting stopped by punches and he's fought much better strikers. Figueiredo throws one punch at a time and gets carried away. Font is precise and should have great success with his jab and uppercuts. Also, let's not forget that Figueiredo has fought the same guy in his last four fights and the last three years. I like Font in this fight and I believe he ends up finishing Figueiredo at some point with the superior striking.

Welterweight, Sean Brady (15-1) vs. Kelvin Gastelum (18-8):

In Gastelum's last fight, he looked the best he has in years. Brady on the other hand took his first loss and got finished. Gastelum has also looked in great shape compared to he ever looked in the past. The hype of Brady dies out off his last fight and rightfully so. Brady has huge concerns on his striking defense, durability, and cardio. For Gastelum, it seems like it's more mental and not putting it together. Brady does have good wrestling and excellent ground game with his control and submission threat. Brady is a good striker but probably wont go toe to toe with Gastelum because Gastelum can take it and dish it out. It just depends on if Brady can have success in the wrestling and it's very possible. I have to go with Gastelum because Brady has too many things going against him and he is coming off a year layoff.

Middleweight, Punahele Soriano (9-3) vs. Dustin Stoltzfus (14-5):

No lie, Stoltzfus is one of the worst fighters on the UFC roster today. Soriano is getting thrown a bone here. Soriano may not be UFC level at all either but he can beat guys at the bottom of the division and that's Stoltzfus. Soriano has the advantage is every area of this fight and as bad as he is I'd be surprised if he lost.

Lightweight, Clay Guida (38-23) vs. Joaquim Silva (12-4):

Win or lose Guida should retire after this because he's shot completely. He has the cardio, pressure, and wrestling but it's not at the same speed as it once was. Silva is aging as well but he's still a threat to finish his food, unlike Guida. The only chance Guida has is to outlast Silva and win off his cardio. Silva on the feet is the far more dangerous fighter with his power and explosiveness. Guida doesn't respond well to getting hit either. If Guida was five years younger I believe he'd outwork Silva. Now, I think Silva will give Guida a lot of problems. I like Silva by TKO but it's more so that Guida is done.

Bantamweight, Miesha Tate (19-9) vs. Julia Avila (9-2):

I was expecting a lot from Avila when she came to the UFC years ago. She's never really blown me away with her performances. She's also coming off a two-year layoff due to pregnancy and a knee injury. Tate should've stayed retired because she's not who she once was. If this was the Tate from years ago she's destroy Avila. If the wrestling was at the same level Avila would be in trouble because Avila has poor TDD and struggles off her back. This fight could go either way and I'm slightly leaning towards Avila.

Middleweight, Cody Brundage (9-5) vs. Zach Reese (6-0):

Brundage is clinging onto a job and he's getting Reese as a send-off. Reese is coming off a win against Eli Aronov on the contender series. I'd pick Aronov to beat Brundage no question. Reese just has a lot of question marks considering he's not had to face much adversity. He's also never fought over five minutes as a pro. We don't know if Reese is a fraud or not but we know Brundage is. I can easily see Brundage shooting his way into a guillotine or getting caught while in guard. I'm picking Reese because he is a threat everywhere and he doesn't have the IQ of a potato like Brundage. I wouldn't bet on Reese because of the "what if's" but I'm confident this fight won't go three rounds.

Lightweight, Joe Solecki (13-3) vs. Drakkar Klose (13-2-1):

Even with good records both these guys stink. Solecki is a good grappler but nothing else. Klose isn't great anywhere as he's just decent everywhere. With Solecki, his grappling would be showcased more if his wrestling was any good. On the feet, he's robotic and has a shaky chin. Klose has decent power but is just so slow and makes mistakes coming in on straight lines exposed. The way I see this going is Klose stuffing the takedowns and landing the impactful shots on the feet. I can see Klose hurting Solecki and maybe even putting him away.

Featherweight, Steve Garcia (14-5) vs. Melquizael Costa (20-6):

This fight should be a lot of fun between two fun strikers. Garcia has looked much better in the UFC since moving down to featherweight. the activity Costa has on the feet. He’s always throwing in groups and is never throwing the same strike back-to-back. He’ll go to the legs, body, and head frequently. He throws in volume and attacks from all angles and at all limbs. Garcia has solid striking as well as he throws with a lot of heat and throws good combinations. He can just be a little over-zealous and that could work out for Costa since he's a good counter striker. Garcia has gone out there and throw caution to the wind not worrying about defense but that's not smart here. I favor the technique and the chin of Costa more than I do Garcia. I also believe Costa can mix in takedowns as well. Both have poor TDD but Costa has better wrestling and BJJ. I like Costa because he has more weapons, a better chin, better defense, and better technique. I think he finds the chin of Garcia at some point.

Light-heavyweight, Ihor Potieria (20-4) vs. Rodolfo Bellato (11-2):

Potieria is shit. Bellato isn't a future-ranked fighter I don't think but he's a good enough fighter to beat a lot of the guys in the division. His jiu-jitsu is really good and on the feet, his striking is getting better and better.  He's capable of getting knocked out as he has been before but Potieria isn't a threat. Potieria has terrible TDD, poor striking defense, awful cardio so he shouldn't win this fight. Bellato by anyway he wants but I think he wins by knockout.

Welterweight, Wellington Turman (18-7) vs. Jared Gooden (22-9):

We're getting more mid-offs in the UFC lately than we have in the past and it's unfortunate. Neither of these guys should be in the UFC. In fact, the only way to get these guys a win is to match them up against each other. Gooden is dangerous early on because of his power but as the fight goes he tends to fall apart. Turman at least fights at a better pace. I don't think Turman should be a big favorite but I do have him winning. Gooden has too many flaws to trust him.

Flyweight, Jamey-Lyn Horth (6-0) vs. Veronica Hardy (7-4-1):

Hardy may of looked good her last fight but let's not forget, that Juliana Miller is god-awful. I like Horth a lot as an up-and-comer as she has a real upside. I don't think Hardy has anything to offer in this fight. Before that fight with Miller, Hardy lost to Bea Malecki of all people. Horth fights long on the feet throwing a lot of straight punches and kicks. She does a fine job at moving around on the outside sticking with the jab and dictating the pace with a lot of kicks. I don’t like the way she holds her chin high but usually, her footwork is good enough to avoid a lot of damage. Somebody that’s super aggressive will be able to touch her up a bit. Hardy will probably press forward but without any success. I belive Horth will stick on the outside with her jab, kickboxing, and footwork. WMMA is a tought one to call but I feel good about Horth here.