Korean War #14: Race To Ruin (Patreon)

Episode 14: The Race To Ruin examines the Asian theatre in spring 1950, and the different concerns which the North Koreans, Soviet and Chinese leaders grappled with. At the apex of these concerns was the alternative plan of Mao's, as Mao desperately wanted to invade Taiwan, and end the Chinese Civil War once and for all before either American support or some form of republican resurgence on that island threatened China. This fear of the implications for Chinese security in Taiwan compelled Mao to act entirely as Stalin expected.

Mao was eager to invade Taiwan, but required Soviet aid to launch such an invasion since he lacked the necessary landing craft. Thus, Stalin held the cards, and he also held them in the Korean case, as supplies began arriving in Pyongyang at the same time as Stalin met with the North Korean delegation over February to April. Important details, and the blueprint of the war were essentially hammered out, and Stalin presented the conflict going the way which Kim had hoped. It would not be a long war, Stalin claimed, but a short sharp one, whereupon the fall of Seoul would cause a pro-Kim uprising in South Korea, and the country would fall without Kim Il-sung having to lift a finger. This, of course, was what Kim Il-sung wanted to hear.

If Kim was being duped by Stalin on this issue, then Mao wasn't doing much better. Gradually, at least, the Chinese leader was beginning to suspect that something was underway in North Korea. Because Stalin kept Mao in the dark on point of principle, Mao couldn't be sure of Soviet moves, but he felt a pressure upon his goals to invade Taiwan, and this was enough to force him to accelerate his plans for an invasion, with or without the necessary craft. This increased preparedness, of course, caused Stalin to increase his own Korean War plans. If Mao managed to seize Taiwan before the Korean War was launched, then Chiang Kai-shek would be absent, and the Sino-American relationship could be potentially healed. To prevent this, Stalin attempted to intercept the Chinese by pushing Kim forward in Korea. It was thus a race, yet on any consideration, it was a race to ruin. Stalin was eager to launch the war, but he was far from eager to actually fight it.