Summary of InvestAnswer's Posts 1st Feb 2024 (Patreon)

Summary of InvestAnswer's Posts Date: 31 January 2023  - 1 February 2024 📈

Thanks Josh

Trading and Investing:

ATR and LILO:

IA distinguishes between ATR and LILO. ATR primarily focuses on identifying the macro trend of an asset, gauging its level of volatility, and providing support and resistance. It is best suited for traders who cannot constantly monitor the markets. LILO, on the other hand, is tailored to assist in timing asset purchases and sales. It is not designed to predict the price of an asset but rather to identify support and resistance levels based on trends and historical data for both layering in and profit taking. 

SOL Alts:

IA continues to work on a pair trading model for SOL Alts, but it is challenging to find more amazing assets at amazing prices.  Less is more sometimes.

Tools:

PTOS and ATR are considered the best tools for the money. However, the ultimate tool remains IADSS.

Hope:

When it comes to investing and trading, hope is not a strategy. One must recognize two things: cutting losers and holding winners. Buying is easy.

Crypto:

BTC ETF Manipulation:

IA suggests that ETF issuers have found a way to sell ETF shares based on BTC price during stock market open hours and then buy BTC at night when the price falls - allowing a potential daily profit spread of 3%. IA has no concrete evidence to support this thesis yet.

ETH ETF:

An ETH ETF may come in May 2024. IA holds a little bit of ETH.

Bitcoin Miners:

IA's investments are mostly in CLSK, followed by RIOT and BITF, which remain a small part of his total portfolio. He remains firm that many miners will not make it post-halving unless the BTC price rises sufficiently. He left CIFR for fear of upcoming selling will take down price. He is willing to reenter CIFR if he sees low $2 again

JUP:

There was $1B in trading volume on JUP in 3 hours. Solana handled it like a champ! 

$1b defi trading volume on $JUP in 3hrs 👀

2.5m non tx in 2.5 hrs (1m per hour)

peak tps dropped from 2100 to 568 non vote Tx's per second for initial 30 minutes into airdrop but recovered quickly to 2200 tps 2 hours in.

Zero validators failed, no lost tx, no issues at all.

Tesla & Auto Industry:

ARK Invest suggests the traditional auto industry will likely be forced to restructure and consolidate as EVs continue to increase in popularity.

Ttesla⁠ Bots:

ARK's initial calculation of humanoid robots having a 3.5 to 1 advantage over humans may have been too low. They are now suggesting that humanoid robots may have a 7 to 1 advantage over humans due to working twice as fast and working 3.5 times as many hours.  Plus this is all about to go into high gear - rem Chamath says AI capabilities will increase 1600x over next 2-3 years. These are the most unprecedented times we have ever faced in the history of the world.  

Macro:

Mortgage Applications:

Mortgage applications are now at 30-year lows.

Job Switchers

The graph indicates that the gap between the pay increases of job switchers and job stayers was quite significant at one point, with job switchers seeing a much higher median increase in pay. However, over time, this gap is shown to be narrowing, with the median pay increase for job switchers declining toward the level of job stayers.

ENERGY/NUCLEAR POWER

Nuclear power is back in vogue. Government targets on net zero along with a desire for greater energy security after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine have led to a surge in new projects around the world in recent years. But increasing nuclear energy capacity is not easy.