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I've been noticing a trend where bitcoin falls after the market closes. And it led me to a potential idea that I will monitor carefully going forward. This is my theory!


A $BTC spot ETF could be managed in a way where the fund managers sell ETF shares based on the #Bitcoin price during stock market open hours, and then buy Spot Bitcoin at night when the price falls. This strategy could potentially allow the ETF to profit from daily spreads of around 3%. I have no concrete evidence to confirm that this strategy is being employed. It's worth noting that the T+1 and T+2 OTC (over-the-counter) trading terms refer to the settlement periods for trades, could lead to a lot of potential manipulation🔍


Just sharing my random observations and I don't want to concern anyone. 



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Anonymous

This is exactly right. Btc falls around 8pm PST then rises slowly overnight, then rockets up around noon to close a lot higher. I can’t see them continuing this forever as their etf customers will want to see gains. This will require Btc to go up in price. Allowing Btc to rise to 100k this year will show a very good return for the etfs and bring in even more investors. This has been a painful month, time for a Feb rally.

Anonymous

Yes, I agree it can't continue as the supply starts to dwindle. The combination of FTX, GBTC, and long-term holders selling and escaping self-custody has put a lot of FUD in people's minds. In the end, though you can't escape the fact that the supply crunch is coming and no one can stop it.

Anonymous

How do we think the options will effect all of this?