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Deflation is the Kiss of Death [USA] (Patreon)

Published:
2023-11-17 05:40:01
Imported:
2023-11
Tags:

Content

The October Consumer Price Index (CPI) data reveals two crucial insights, indicating a shift towards technical deflation. 

  • Firstly, the 'All Items less Shelter' metric registered a negative value. 
  • Secondly, the shelter component's rate halved, moving from 0.6% to 0.3%. 

It's important to note that the methodology for calculating the shelter component varies globally. For instance, the Euro Area employs a net acquisition method for their CPI, contrasting with their monetary policy's payments approach. In the U.S., the Bureau of Labor and Statistics uses a different method for the CPI, leading to a significant delay in reflecting real-time changes. 

Given this, the 'All Items less Shelter' metric emerges as a reliable indicator for predicting near-future CPI trends. Based on this, we can anticipate the CPI to hover around zero in the coming months, signaling a technically deflationary period.

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Comments

Anonymous

Car insurance is way up and rising every six months and car prices are still out of control. Everyday items are still high and let's not forget about property taxes and property insurance rising year after year. Where exactly is inflation going down?

Anonymous

I’ve never understood how the Fed measures inflation. Their so-called core rate of inflation excludes food and energy, as if nobody needs to eat or transport themselves or heat up their homes. Now the deflation is measured excluding shelter. WTF! Rents and property taxes are going through the roof (pun intended) but we’re not going to include them in our calculations. Really?