UBS Thinks Cut start in March and GO DEEP! (Patreon)

Published:

2023-11-14 04:22:10

Imported:

2023-11

Tags:

Fed Pivot Rate Cuts UBS

Content

UBS strategists forecast a 275 basis point reduction in the Federal Reserve's interest rates next year, a much larger cut than the market's current expectation of 75 basis points.
The rate cuts are anticipated to start in March due to a continued decline in inflation, with the federal funds rate expected to drop to between 2.5% and 2.75% by the end of 2024.
The strategists predict a U.S. recession by the second quarter, with the terminal rate reaching 1.25% by early 2025.
Contrasting views are seen among Wall Street banks, with Morgan Stanley expecting significant cuts and Goldman Sachs predicting fewer and later reductions.
In the euro zone, UBS expects a delayed start to easing by the European Central Bank, forecasting only 75 basis points in cuts after June, in contrast to market expectations of 100 basis points starting as early as April.