Market Perspective: Up vs Down Years over 100 yrs (Patreon)

The chart provides a visual summary of the last circa 100 years of US equities. It shows the number of consecutive up years (green) and consecutive down years (black) for the S&P 500 index, from 1928 to the present day (2023 is shown as year-to-date).

The chart shows that there have been more up years than down years over the past 100 years. However, the down years have been more pronounced, with some periods of prolonged decline. For example, there were 10 consecutive down years from 1929 to 1938, during the Great Depression.  

The chart also shows that the length of up and down streaks has varied over time. For example, there were only 2 consecutive up years in the 1970s, but there have been 12 consecutive up years since 2009.

Ignoring great depression stuff 27% are down years.  Including full history 30% are down years.  Most recently a down year is followed by at least 3 up years. 

The chart provides a useful overview of the long-term performance of the US stock market. It shows that there have been both ups and downs, but that the overall trend has been upwards. However, it is important to remember that past performance is not a guarantee of future results.