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Ark Invest on Tesla by 2027 (Patreon)

Published:
2023-04-22 15:19:45
Imported:
2023-04

Content

ARK’s updated open-source Tesla model yields an expected value per share of $2,000 in 2027. The bull and bear cases, tuned to the 75th and 25th percentile Monte Carlo outcomes, respectively, are approximately $2,500 and $1,400 per share, as shown below.

This means Bull Case a 15x from today

Bear Case a 7.5x 

Expected Case an 11x

However, some skeptics raise the following questions:

  • What if the concept of robotaxi never comes to fruition?
  • What if production scaling is artificially limited?
  • What if Tesla has to continue pricing aggressively in order to sell their products?


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Comments

Anonymous

Indeed nothing certain and depends on certain milestones (eg FSD good enough for Robi taxi) and adoption. Still best bet though

Anonymous

Looks like a good basis for a dedicated episode

Anonymous

Thanks James! Also let me add the biggest risk from my perspective , Chinese companies like XPENG will take Market share in China 🇨🇳by copying tesla tech. Case in point is the new G6 which looks like an improved Y. Since these companies are favored heavily by CCP they can copy tesla tech - the only thing that sets tesla apart. CCP doesn’t care about IP protection if it serves their agenda. I think western companies are all taking risk in China due to the lucrative market but even apple diversified in India. My concern for tesla is that they are already the dominant ev car in the west and China and Asian countries are the next frontier as such their growth hinge on these markers. But if the local companies especially Chinese continue copying their tech combined with favorable deals ie loans from CCP or judgement if tesla brings them to court tesla will lose their edge in the market but worse their technology. Remember the CCP owns everything in China, they can go into tesla Factories and even send Elon to jail to silence him, Remember Jack Ma of Alibaba? Tesla is my second biggest holding but I want to see Elon diversify to other friendlier democratic nations like India or Australia to produce its car. Emperor xi is a shrewd man, our boy Elon will get played. He may be the genius of our time, but the one with the gun makes the rules especially if you play in his backyard. I’ll swing trade this stock buy now and sell when it hits my range I’ll increase my Google position my 3rd. Good luck all, DYOR. Also James I know you have political insight what do you think about this risk?

Anonymous
>>106927246

I may not be the best investor but I can’t afford to be a bad one - Morgan Housel the psychology of money

Anonymous

Just hope $Tesla stays low so I can load my bag steadily now till end of year.

Anonymous

Someone, hopefully can address: We love Cathy's genuine enthusiasm and conviction in innovation but her stock selections, portfolio management, timing and trading the last couple years have lost huge amounts of money. OTOH, former friend of community, Ben Cowen, who was more or less directionally correct during the bear market (except perhaps until early this year), recently tweeted a very bearish chart pattern for TSLA...citing "...one lower high after another. Each time it bounces, people get sucked back in, only for it to roll over again." https://twitter.com/intocryptoverse/status/1649243910055534594?t=IIsiVAmk_cq5PIGRixUdxA&s=19 Hoping someone can address this anxiety-producing chart!

Anonymous
>>106930664

Why would he be a former friend? If anyone was ever non-emotional and just about the numbers, it would be Ben.

Anonymous

Hey Gang, Is anyone here an actual experienced Software Engineer? I ask because, this whole Robotaxi thing, seems backwards to me. If you have actual experience in software, you know that lag 10% to get to perfection takes 100x the effort as the first 90% too to code up. That’s the whole point of agile development, you ship monthly whatever you got and push the rest, otherwise you would never ship. When we are talking about full autonomy, the system MUST be 100%. And since we are only like 90% of the way there , we are YEARS away from even a Robotaxi pilot in a small control town like Austin. My experience tells me we are 5-10 years away.

Anonymous

Could someone profile a good investment she has made in the last 18 months. Not trying to be funny or negative. But evertime I hear her name it is after losing money. And it is usually big money.

Anonymous
>>106936648

Unfortunately, software is one of those things that never reaches the point of "perfection". In my experience, the best approximation of software quality (assuming there are no regressions) is a sigmoid function (where x is time and y is quality). That's why I consider the point of diminishing returns a more important milestone than the nebulous point of perfection. In my book, following Pareto principle is key :) The above is not meant to argue the point of your 5-10 year projection for the system to be 100% as requirements for 100% are not defined. If 100% means that the system is ready for GA release - it's one thing, but if 100% means the system is "perfect", then your timeline is too short :)

Anonymous

I've heard the point being frequently made that Tesla is an "energy company" and not just a "car company". I understand and agree with the reasoning behind it. But I am curious, what would prevent Elon from spinning off one or more companies for its energy and AI focused divisions while keeping Tesla purely focused on EV manufacturing? Here is a partial list of similar company spin-offs: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_largest_corporate_spin-offs This would leave Tesla investors holding a bag of shares of a pure car company making its current valuation way too rich and thus resulting in a stock price correction.

Anonymous
>>106936648

Yep, agreed. Unfortunately there will have to be rational discussions on what proven level of safety is acceptable. Not saying I know the answer, but for me personally it would be somewhere in the 200M miles driven fully autonomous (zero human takeovers) without a single fatality. We are nowhere near that now. To me it’s like a great magic trick. It’s perfect like 99.5% of the time, so you have all these false claims that it is “perfectly safe” , but the reality is to get to acceptable safety where I can actually take a nap we need to be in the 99.8-9 range. That “last mile” (haha) has significantly high dimensioning returns for the software dev team as you said. Watching some of the latest YouTube videos of FSD beta, there are many examples where the guy has to grab the wheel because it turned into oncoming traffic, EXTREMELY SCARY S$#&☠️☠️

Anonymous
>>106936648

To clarify, by 100%. I mean the product is what generally would be acceptable to everyone as finished and safe. Example: the idea of how to make and install and use seatbelts is 100%. The discussion is over, it is accepted for what it is.

Anonymous
>>106940016

Yep, which is why Elon is such a wildcard, he has proven that his behavior is not predictable at all. I.E volatility = uncertainty. And as we know the market hates uncertainty

Anonymous

why i am bullish 2 years ago no tesla seen in

Anonymous

Australia now u cant even drive to the shops without seeing one gas is $5.71 a gallon thats USD and that is why it can only go up tesla just the best product Elon is like the Jordan of EV market :)

Anonymous

Nice boring video of FSD in NYC. Enjoy 😊 https://youtu.be/XepGgq_ahAA

rscx
>>106927246

The CCP literally put him on house arrest and disappeared the wealthiest man in China for like 1-2 years. The point is the CCP doesn’t care how rich you are, how successful you, how good of an entrepreneur you, they only care how well you toe the line.

rscx
>>106930664

People aren’t as “non-emotional” as they would pretend to be.

rscx
>>106940016

I could a possibility where the US forces him to spin some off. A risk when you aren’t well liked in Washington.

Anonymous

Question for you - previously Ark had projected $22,000 in 2030 for Tesla. If they are saying $2000 in 2027 how does that impact 2030 expectations? Do stock splits impact this?

Anonymous
>>106942538

You guys are so lucky to live in a country where yo can test FSD!!