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【國際關係深度評 🇪🇺🇫🇷】 法國馬克龍的驚人之舉：為何為了無足輕重的歐洲議會選舉結果，而忽然解散國會重選？（四） (Patreon)

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2024-06-16 02:01:01
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按馬克龍自己的說法，解散國會、提前大選，就是要讓選民選擇，證明法國是否真的已經接受瑪琳勒龐的極右路線，找一個機會呼籲「正常」右派、中間派大團結。同時轉移視線，令輿論專注選舉，放下他帶領執政復興黨失利的事實。

問題是現在國民陣線士氣如虹，正常邏輯都是要對手弱勢時才「輸打贏要」地提前選舉，這才是執政黨的優勢，而不是相反送上讓對方可能執政的機會。萬一馬克龍豪賭失敗呢？後果可以非常嚴重。

另一個馬克龍可能的算盤，就是為了讓下屆總統大選和國會選舉脫鉤。本來法國總統的任期是7年，和國會選舉不容易同年進行，但自從2000年修憲變成5年任期，總統和國會選舉就一直在同一年舉行至今，通常國會選舉比總統選舉遲兩個月。換句話說，兩個選舉之間會有明顯的「帶票」效果，通常當選的總統所屬的執政黨，都有能力勝出兩個月後的國會選舉；2022年馬克龍所屬前進黨（現復興黨）在國會選舉失去單一多數黨議席，已經是唯一的例外。也許馬克龍認為，如果2027年只有總統選舉，選民會單一聚焦瑪琳勒龐的個人問題，主流政黨的勝算就會比較大。

但這樣的解釋，依然是牽強的。

這次忽然出現的國會選舉很快就會來臨，初選在6月30日進行，也就是距離今天只有兩個星期的時間讓所有政黨作準備，而且法國在7月還要舉行巴黎奧運會，本來各地已經非常忙碌，包括馬克龍所屬的政黨，都覺得完全措手不及。法國政黨眾多，國會選舉之前，通常都有一輪合縱連橫的整合、討價還價，現在只有兩個星期，就算全速進行，也很難有甚麼戲劇性改變。

國民陣線的成功門檻很簡單，只要超過上次選舉獲得的89席，已經算是大成功；相反以馬克龍所屬復興黨現在的民望，卻很可能失去比現有245席更多的議席，除非他成功在這個關頭真的整合所有右翼、中間政黨作為共主，但談何容易。如果民意真的逆轉，國民陣線居然得到國會多數議席，成為執政黨，那就是二戰之後法國政壇的真正變天。

瑪琳勒龐是篤定要下屆選總統的，如果國民陣線成為第一大黨，國民陣線推出的總理人選會是年僅28歲的黨主席、瑪琳勒龐「契仔」 Jordan Bardella，他是一個會為了瑪琳勒龐而選擇專注政治、情願從法國第一名校索邦大學輟學的人。馬克龍當選總統時39歲，一直以青年才俊形象示人，但現年已經46歲，和28歲的國民陣線「小鮮肉」相比，卻當堂變成上一代人，屆時兩人的「同居」政治，可能非常戲劇性。 

馬克龍驚人之舉的最後一個「八奇思維」解釋，可能是他料定國民陣線這次會大有斬獲，成為國會第一政黨，讓「小鮮肉」成為總理，然後「買重」他會把法國政壇搞到一團糟，加上自己有能力讓「同居」的對方不斷出醜露乖，到了2027年總統大選，瑪琳勒龐就會失去當選的機會。畢竟法國本了已經赤字甚高、國債甚高，如果國民陣線執政，市場反應一定更糟糕，屆時究竟誰失民望，就有很多變數。但這類操作的變數實在太多，很容易有反效果，就算是真正的八奇也不可能算無遺策，何況是馬克龍？

究竟法國政局的後續發展如何，不出一個月，我們就知道。

（待續）

▶️ 陳偉信博士：法國總統馬克龍訪華公關災難：「戴高樂主義」等同「反美主義」嗎？（上）
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=toTt3IMv4bM

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Comments

James Green

歐洲好多國家面臨同一局面。奧地利的極右黨雖然醜聞極多，簡直係一個笑話。但目前係國會第三大黨。今次歐盟國會選舉亦都得票第一

George (edited)

Comment edits

2024-06-18 10:07:53 Is Macron a failed gambler or a great strategist? His move is a high-stakes game that risks plunging France into chaos, and no one knows how it’s going to play out. Many experts believe that Macron's decision to call a snap election amounts to potentially handing the reins of one of the leading countries in the EU to the far-right. Worse yet for left-wing camps in France and the EU as a whole, this sort of ideology shift within voters could trigger a ripple effect that could inspire far-right opposition parties across its domain, not least in Germany, and provide them with an impetus to learn from Marine Le Pen’s model of transformation into “neo-far-right” in order to gradually gain public approval. On the contrary, Macron seems to be calculating that the harsh economic climate, tense geopolitical circumstances, and the challenges of being in office will expose the inadequacies of Le Pen's National Rally (RN) – a party adorned with slogans, driven by protest and prejudice, and lacking in governance experience. His bold bet aims to raise public awareness of this “imminent danger.” Sooner or later Macron has to seek to prevent what had begun to appear unavoidable: a Le Pen victory in the presidential election three years later, leading to an uncertain and potentially risky path forward. Yet time is running very short for the month-end election and Macron is going against the tide of public opinion. Some polls show that his party, Renaissance, with only a 19% vote share, is trailing far behind the RN at 32-35%, with the second placed New Popular Front at approximately 25-26%. If fortune smiles upon him, Macron will seize the opportunity to present himself as a vindicated hero who fearlessly drew a line, thwarted the encroaching forces of darkness at a crucial juncture, and rescued France from its own peril — a public image he is eager to tout, much like many politicians who overstate their role as saviors but have a causal relationship with the facts. Perhaps Macron’s slogan in this election is “too critical to fail,” with a strategy of giving little time for French voters to choose the lesser of two evils. When the irreconcilable finally bow to the inevitable, I wonder whether his concession speech would contain a hint of contrition or a murmur of recognition that he is the architect of setbacks, some of his own making.
2024-06-18 10:07:53 Is Macron a failed gambler or a great strategist? His move is a high-stakes game that risks plunging France into chaos, and no one knows how it’s going to play out. Many experts believe that Macron's decision to call a snap election amounts to potentially handing the reins of one of the leading countries in the EU to the far-right. Worse yet for left-wing camps in France and the EU as a whole, this sort of ideology shift within voters could trigger a ripple effect that could inspire far-right opposition parties across its domain, not least in Germany, and provide them with an impetus to learn from Marine Le Pen’s model of transformation into “neo-far-right” in order to gradually gain public approval. On the contrary, Macron seems to be calculating that the harsh economic climate, tense geopolitical circumstances, and the challenges of being in office will expose the inadequacies of Le Pen's National Rally (RN) – a party adorned with slogans, driven by protest and prejudice, and lacking in governance experience. His bold bet aims to raise public awareness of this “imminent danger.” Sooner or later Macron has to seek to prevent what had begun to appear unavoidable: a Le Pen victory in the presidential election three years later, leading to an uncertain and potentially risky path forward. Yet time is running very short for the month-end election and Macron is going against the tide of public opinion. Some polls show that his party, Renaissance, with only a 19% vote share, is trailing far behind the RN at 32-35%, with the second placed New Popular Front at approximately 25-26%. If fortune smiles upon him, Macron will seize the opportunity to present himself as a vindicated hero who fearlessly drew a line, thwarted the encroaching forces of darkness at a crucial juncture, and rescued France from its own peril — a public image he is eager to tout, much like many politicians who overstate their role as saviors and have a causal relationship with the facts. Perhaps Macron’s slogan in this election is “too critical to fail,” with a strategy of giving little time for French voters to choose the lesser of two evils. When the irreconcilable finally bow to the inevitable, I wonder whether his concession speech would contain a hint of contrition or a murmur of recognition that he is the architect of setbacks, some of his own making.
2024-06-17 02:26:01 Is Macron a failed gambler or a great strategist? His move is a high-stakes game that risks plunging France into chaos, and no one knows how it’s going to play out. Many experts believe that Macron's decision to call a snap election amounts to potentially handing the reins of one of the leading countries in the EU to the far-right. Worse yet for left-wing camps in France and the EU as a whole, this sort of ideology shift within voters could trigger a ripple effect inspiring far-right opposition parties across their domains, not least in Germany, and provide them with an impetus to learn from Marine Le Pen’s model of transformation into a “neo-far-right” party in order to gradually gain public approval. On the contrary, Macron seems to be calculating that the harsh economic climate, tense geopolitical circumstances, and the challenges of being in office will expose the inadequacies of Le Pen's National Rally (RN) – a party adorned with slogans, driven by protest and prejudice, and lacking in governance experience. His bold bet aims to raise public awareness of this “imminent danger.” Sooner or later Macron has to seek to prevent what had begun to appear unavoidable: a Le Pen victory in the presidential election three years later, leading to an uncertain and potentially risky path forward. Yet time is running very short for the month-end election and Macron is going against the tide of public opinion. Some polls show that his party, Renaissance, with only a 19% vote share, is trailing far behind the RN at 32-35%, with the second placed New Popular Front at approximately 25-26%. If fortune smiles upon him, Macron will seize the opportunity to present himself as a vindicated hero who fearlessly drew a line, thwarted the encroaching forces of darkness at a crucial juncture, and rescued France from its own peril — a public image he is eager to tout, much like many politicians who overstate their role as saviors but have a causal relationship with the facts. Perhaps Macron’s slogan in this election is “too critical to fail,” with a strategy of giving little time for French voters to choose the lesser of two evils. When the irreconcilable finally bow to the inevitable, I wonder whether his concession speech would contain a hint of contrition or a murmur of recognition that he is the architect of setbacks, some of his own making.

Is Macron a failed gambler or a great strategist? His move is a high-stakes game that risks plunging France into chaos, and no one knows how it’s going to play out. Many experts believe that Macron's decision to call a snap election amounts to potentially handing the reins of one of the leading countries in the EU to the far-right. Worse yet for left-wing camps in France and the EU as a whole, this sort of ideology shift within voters could trigger a ripple effect inspiring far-right opposition parties across their domains, not least in Germany, and provide them with an impetus to learn from Marine Le Pen’s model of transformation into a “neo-far-right” party in order to gradually gain public approval. On the contrary, Macron seems to be calculating that the harsh economic climate, tense geopolitical circumstances, and the challenges of being in office will expose the inadequacies of Le Pen's National Rally (RN) – a party adorned with slogans, driven by protest and prejudice, and lacking in governance experience. His bold bet aims to raise public awareness of this “imminent danger.” Sooner or later Macron has to seek to prevent what had begun to appear unavoidable: a Le Pen victory in the presidential election three years later, leading to an uncertain and potentially risky path forward. Yet time is running very short for the month-end election and Macron is going against the tide of public opinion. Some polls show that his party, Renaissance, with only a 19% vote share, is trailing far behind the RN at 32-35%, with the second placed New Popular Front at approximately 25-26%. If fortune smiles upon him, Macron will seize the opportunity to present himself as a vindicated hero who fearlessly drew a line, thwarted the encroaching forces of darkness at a crucial juncture, and rescued France from its own peril — a public image he is eager to tout, much like many politicians who overstate their role as saviors but have a causal relationship with the facts. Perhaps Macron’s slogan in this election is “too critical to fail,” with a strategy of giving little time for French voters to choose the lesser of two evils. When the irreconcilable finally bow to the inevitable, I wonder whether his concession speech would contain a hint of contrition or a murmur of recognition that he is the architect of setbacks, some of his own making.

Dllmcls

同英國提早選舉有可比性？